John Baer: Tax-hike plan hitting GOP wall, for now
AT THE START of week two of the annual state budget impasse, Republicans are increasingly convinced that they're on stronger political footing than Gov. Rendell and Democrats, and many guarantee eventual passage of a no-tax budget.
AT THE START of week two of the annual state budget impasse, Republicans are increasingly convinced that they're on stronger political footing than Gov. Rendell and Democrats, and many guarantee eventual passage of a no-tax budget.
This GOP confidence rests in the state of the economy, changes in the Legislature and its leadership, and attitudes of voters regarding even the prospect of higher taxes.
"We have to change this place in terms of taxing and spending," says House Republican Whip Mike Turzai, of Pittsburgh, "Ultimately, the governor and Democrats are going to realize they don't get their way this time. . . . The governor and [House Appropriations Chairman] Dwight Evans have never seen this kind of resolve."
Turzai and other GOPers in the stalemate with Rendell over his proposed increase in the personal-income tax to close a $3.25 billion deficit see multiple reasons why the politics of the fight favor Republicans.
They argue, for example, that Rendell has no powerful political allies to advance his agenda.
Philly Republican Rep. John Perzel, who helped push and pass the last income-tax hike in 2003, when he was House speaker, is out of power.
Former Democratic Sen. Vince Fumo, who (flaws aside) was the best budget closer in the business, is out of the process, awaiting sentencing on his federal corruption conviction.
Also, Republican Senate leaders are relatively new (former top leaders lost re-election fights in 2006 after the 2005 legislative pay-raise debacle) and not as open to deal-making as were their predecessors.
And, since the last income tax increase, more than 25 percent of the 253-member Legislature is new, many elected on pledges of reforms and fiscal responsibility.
Meanwhile, Republicans who control the Senate stand on a wall of opposition to taxes that they say cannot be breached.
Senate GOP Appropriations Chairman Jake Corman says that Republicans are "more united" than in 2003 when Rendell was coming off an impressive gubernatorial victory. Corman says that a budget won't be settled "until we get a commitment to take the personal-income tax off the table."
He says that Senate Republicans are unanimous in opposition to a tax increase.
Not so in the House. Philly Republican Rep. Dennis O'Brien tells me that he'd vote for higher taxes rather than risk the "human consequences" of dramatic cuts in government services, and says that there are up to 10 GOP House votes for taxes.
"When you cut programs and services you're cutting people," O'Brien says. "I think their [GOP leaders] judgment is misplaced."
He says that pushback from deep cuts could politically damage Republicans in next year's elections.
But not all House Democrats support a tax hike, and many lawmakers say that voting for taxes can be politically damaging.
Plus, a House-passed tax increase faces that Senate wall. Hence, deadlock: Rendell says that there can be no balanced budget without new revenue; Senate says that there will be no budget with new taxes.
Rendell senior adviser Ken Snyder concedes that Republicans hold an edge, but also maintains that it won't last: "This political advantage is short term. Whenever you oppose a tax increase you have a political advantage, but there are two stubborn numbers that aren't going away: $3.2 billion [the deficit] and $1.5 billion [the amount that Rendell says that the Senate-passed budget is out of balance].
"At some point Republicans have to either dispense with political rhetoric and offer a plan that's balanced, or consent to the governor. . . . The only thing less popular than tax increases are extreme cuts in public education, economic development and jobs."
Still, selling higher taxes in the current political and economic environment might be the toughest task Rendell's faced to date.
Even an urban House Democrat supportive of the governor tells me, "There will be an endgame here, but it won't include the income tax." *
Send e-mail to baerj@phillynews.com.
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