When:

Tomorrow, 6:04 p.m. post time

Where:

Churchill Downs, Lousville, Ky.

TV:

Channel 10, coverage begins at 5 p.m.

Distance:

1 1/4 miles

Weight:

All carry 126 pounds

Purse:

$2,210,000 if 20 start

Morning line:

50-1

Owner:

Silverton Hill

Trainer:

Darrin Miller

Jockey:

Julien Leparoux

Graded Earnings:

$127,500

Last three:

Transylvania (4th), Lane's End (2nd), Hallandale Beach (2nd).

Jerardi's breakdown:

Never won a stakes race. The Derby generally is not the place to start.

Morning line:

7-2

Owner:

Jess Jackson, Padua Stable, George Bolton & Midnight Cry Stable

Trainer:

Steve Asmussen

Jockey:

Robby Albarado

Graded Earnings:

$780,000

Last three:

Arkansas Derby (1st), Rebel (1st), Maiden (at Gulfstream, 1st).

Jerardi's breakdown:

Rider looks like he's driving a car with this push-button horse. Three dominating wins against suspect competition.

Morning line:

30-1

Owner:

Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC

Trainer:

Steve Asmussen

Jockey:

Shaun Bridgmohan

Graded Earnings:

$177,969

Last three:

Blue Grass (3rd), Louisiana Derby (3rd), Risen Star (3rd).

Jerardi's breakdown:

Never worse than third since his first start, but does not appear fast enough to make an impact.

Morning line:

30-1

Owner:

David and Teresa Palmer

Trainer:

Bill Kaplan

Jockey:

Juan Leyva

Graded Earnings:

$227,500

Last three:

Arkansas Derby (2nd), Palm Beach (3rd), Hutcheson (6th).

Jerardi's breakdown:

This is the Derby in May, and this horse is not winning it.

Morning line:

50-1

Owner:

Lewis Pell and Michael Eigner

Trainer:

Bill Kaplan

Jockey:

Mark Guidry

Graded Earnings:

$104,000

Last three:

Florida Derby (6th), Louisiana Derby (4th), Risen Star (2nd).

Jerardi's breakdown:

Nice name. Trainer says he can run all day, but, at the end of the day, the horse is still slow.

Morning line:

20-1

Owner:

WinStar Farm

Trainer:

Todd Pletcher

Jockey:

Fernando Jara

Graded Earnings:

$437,253

Last three:

Illinois Derby (1st), Gotham (1st), Swale (3rd).

Jerardi's breakdown:

Got loose on the lead in slow fractions to win Illinois Derby. No free lunch here.

Morning line:

4-1

Owner:

James B. Tafel LLC

Trainer:

Carl Nafzger

Jockey:

Calvin Borel

Graded Earnings:

$1,482,000

Last three:

Blue Grass (2nd), Tampa Bay Derby (1st), Breeders' Cup Juvenile (2006, 1st).

Jerardi's breakdown:

Tuesday workout was described by one veteran clocker as the best he's ever seen. Most dangerous horse in the field.

Morning line:

15-1

Owner:

Fox Hill Farms Inc.

Trainer:

J. Larry Jones

Jockey:

Mario Pino

Graded Earnings:

$360,000

Last three:

Lane's End (1st), Southwest (4th), Lecomte (1st).

Jerardi's breakdown:

Unless he gets loose on the lead, he will have to deal with differing circumstances. And Monday's work was too fast.

Morning line:

30-1

Owner:

J. Paul Reddam

Trainer:

Doug O'Neill

Jockey:

David Flores

Graded Earnings:

$161,200

Last three:

Santa Anita Derby (4th), Louisiana Derby (6th), Sham (2nd).

Jerardi's breakdown:

Could be part of the pace scenario. Not likely to be around at the finish.

Morning line:

30-1

Owner:

Gary Logsdon, Donnie Kelly and Jamie Sanders

Trainer:

Jamie Sanders

Jockey:

Stewart Elliott

Graded Earnings:

$122,942

Last three:

Blue Grass (4th), Rebel (3rd), Southwest (1st).

Jerardi's breakdown:

The iron horse is making his 16th lifetime start and running in his 12th stakes race. Not winning this one.

Morning line:

50-1

Owner:

Mark DeDomenico, Mark Jelladian & Dan and Jerry Todaro

Trainer:

Jerry Hollendorfer

Jockey:

Javier Castellano

Graded Earnings:

$125,000

Last three:

Santa Anita Derby (5th), El Camino Real Derby (1st), California Derby (1st).

Jerardi's breakdown:

Strange case of Derby fever for the connections of this overmatched son of the great Holy Bull.

Morning line:

8-1

Owner:

Elizabeth Valando

Trainer:

Barclay Tagg

Jockey:

Cornelio Velasquez

Graded Earnings:

$778,500

Last three:

Wood Memorial (1st), Fountain of Youth (3rd), Holy Bull (1st).

Jerardi's breakdown:

Keep waiting for the bust-out performance from this talented colt. Be the right time.

Morning line:

20-1

Owner:

Starlight Stable & Donald Lucarelli

Trainer:

Todd Pletcher

Jockey:

Ramon Domiguez

Graded Earnings:

$146,500

Last three:

Santa Anita Derby (3rd), Robert B. Lewis (2nd), Holy Bull (4th).

Jerardi's breakdown:

Ridden too aggressively in Santa Anita Derby. Does not appear to be fast enough.

Morning line:

10-1

Owner:

James Scatuorchio & Michael Tabor

Trainer:

Todd Pletcher

Jockey:

Edgar Prado

Graded Earnings:

$1,308,500

Last three:

Florida Derby (1st), Fountain of Youth (1st), Holy Bull (3rd).

Jerardi's breakdown:

Super-professional grinder has won a lot of big races, but never shown the explosion needed to win the Derby.

Morning line:

15-1

Owner:

Mr. & Mrs. Jerome S. Moss

Trainer:

John Shirreffs

Jockey:

Mike Smith

Graded Earnings:

$450,000

Last three:

Santa Anita Derby (1st), Robert B. Lewis (7th), Maiden win (Santa Anita, 1st).

Jerardi's breakdown:

Giacomo's half-brother has much more speed and acceleration than the '05 Derby winner. A live longshot.

Morning line:

8-1

Owner:

Michael & Doreen Tabor

Trainer:

Todd Pletcher

Jockey:

John Velazquez

Graded Earnings:

$1,116,134

Last three:

Louisiana Derby (1st), Risen Star (5th), Breeders' Cup Juvenile (2006, 2nd).

Jerardi's breakdown:

Has never run a poor race. Is this the one to get Pletcher into the Derby winner's circle?

Morning line:

30-1

Owner:

Bill Currin

Trainer:

Bill Currin

Jockey:

Kent Desormeaux

Graded Earnings:

$642,900

Last three:

Florida Derby (4th), Fountain of Youth (2nd), Hollywood Futurity (2006, 1st).

Jerardi's breakdown:

Why did they choose this post when 2 was available? Figures to set the pace anyway.

Morning line:

12-1

Owner:

WinStar Farm, Maverick Racing and Padua Stable

Trainer:

Todd Pletcher

Jockey:

Garrett Gomez

Graded Earnings:

$177,969

Last three:

Wood Memorial (3rd), Tampa Bay Derby (2nd), Sam F. Davis (1st).

Jerardi's breakdown:

Never worse than third in six starts. The trip will be key.

Morning line:

20-1

Owner:

Silverton Hill Farm

Trainer:

Darrin Miller

Jockey:

Rafael Bejarano

Graded Earnings:

$498,494

Last three:

Blue Grass (1st), Rushaway (1st), Kentucky Jockey Club (2006, 2nd).

Jerardi's breakdown:

Unbeaten on Polytrack, but winless on dirt. Probably not fast enough to win.

Morning line:

15-1

Owner:

J. Paul Reddam

Trainer:

Doug O'Neill

Jockey:

Corey Nakatani

Graded Earnings:

$752,500

Last three:

Blue Grass (5th), Robert B. Lewis (1st), Breeders' Cup Juvenile (2006, 3rd).

Jerardi's breakdown:

Battle tested in seven consecutive stakes. Has the kind of move that wins the Derby.