Cowboys (-10) over PANTHERS

A number of crucial stats surround this selection, and we'll get there in a minute, but probably the most important part of the equation is Jessica Simpson. She and Dallas QB Tony Romo are an item, and she was at Sunday's game against the Eagles. Obviously, Tony Ro (Jessica's pet name, not mine) was somewhat distracted every time he looked into the stands. Totally understandable. This week, we're hearing that Jessica is not gonna travel to Carolina (the game is on the NFL Network and no one will be watching), so Romo will be ready to play some serious football. As for the stats, the 'Boys are picture perfect on the road (6-0), rank second in the league with 378.5 yards per game, and have covered six of the last eight on the road. And with Carolina scoring only 12 points per game since the bye week, look for Dallas by at least two dozen.

CARDINALS (-10) over Falcons

Could things possibly get any worse for Atlanta? Really. Michael Vick goes to the big house, and it ain't the one in Ann Arbor. Head coach Bobby Petrino runs out of town like a little girl to take the Arkansas job. Then Bill Parcells turns down the Falcons to go to the Dolphins. Guess Parcells figured he would have a longer honeymoon with a 1-13 team (Miami) than a 3-11 team (Atlanta). And that's just off the field. On the field, the Falcs have dropped five in a row, straight up and against the spread. They've been outscored, 161-53, during that span, and the new QB, Chris Redman, was only 4-for-15 Sunday for 34 - 34 - yards. Yikes! Arizona is coming off two losses, but both were on the road. And with two games remaining at home, the Cardinals have a chance to finish at 8-8, which would be the first time since 1998 that they were at or above .500.

Eagles (+3) over SAINTS

Apparently, the Birds have found a way to turn road rage into a handsome profit. With Sunday's win, the Eagles are now working on a 5-0 spread run on the road. They've covered nine of the last 11 away from home, while New Orleans has not had much success at home. The Saints have covered only nine of the last 31 at home, and when you compare the cover numbers 82 percent (Birds) to 29 percent (Saints), and throw in a little double revenge, this is all Philly.

BILLS (+3) over Giants

Take a peek at Buffalo's home games, and you'll see why we're content to ride the Bills. If you look past the 56-10 bomb they suffered through against the Patriots, the rest of their work at The Ralph has been top-notch. They have a 6-1 spread mark in Bufftown and deserve your attention.

Buccaneers (-5) over 49ERS

San Francisco is 4-10 and has two players in the Pro Bowl. Tampa is 9-5, has won the NFC South, and has no one going to Hawaii. That's motivation factor No. 1. No. 2: Jeff Garcia was an All-Pro with the 49ers and had them in the playoffs in 2002 and 2003. The Niners have not made the playoffs since. So, you have a ton of motivation, a QB who wants to show up his old 'mates, as well as the superior team. Bonus!

BEARS (+9) over Packers

Anyone watching Monday night's game would have to stipulate that Chicago has not quit. And Brian Urlacher is still a beast. Da Bears might not get the win, but should have no trouble covering this generous spread.

PATRIOTS (-22) over Dolphins

New England has clinched everything in sight, but the big one, the Perfect Season, is still on the table. The Pats are not gonna slow down, especially against the only unbeaten franchise in NFL history.

I also like:

BENGALS (+3) over Browns

COLTS (-7) over Texans

LIONS (-4) over Chiefs

Raiders (+13) over JAGUARS

Redskins (+6) over VIKINGS

SEAHAWKS (-10) over Ravens

Jets (+8) over TITANS

Broncos (+8) over CHARGERS