EAGLES (-3.5) over Packers
Carson Wentzylvania has made it pretty easy to handicap the Birds: Play 'em at home, and play against on the road. At home, a brilliant 4-0 record - straight up and against the spread - with an average winning margin 17.5 points per game. And even better, they've allowed a total of 38 points (9.5 per) at the Linc. The only anomaly on the home/away chart is a road win at Chicago, 29-14, which just so happened to be a Monday nighter. Who woulda thought that a kid from Bismarck, N.D., would take to the City of Brotherly Love like fried onions on a cheesesteak? Having Aaron Rodgers on the other side of the field is always a bit scary, but his defense has been horrendous, allowing 89 points over the last two games and 153 the last four. The Pack has also been a disaster against the spread, covering only two of the last nine (22 percent). Gimme Carson & Company, and also over 47.5 as the Green Birds fly into the winner's circle with a 30-21 victory.
RAVENS (-4) over Bengals
How can you not love Joe Flacco? He comes into the press room after losing to the Cowboys and says, "We should beat this team, and I'm not kidding." Now that's confidence, man! And that has to filter down to the rest of the Ravens. Their 5-5 record doesn't sound like much, but it's good enough to sit at the top of the AFC North entering Week 12 in a tie with the Steelers. Now this Cincy squad comes to town without two of their best offensive weapons. WR A.J. Green and RB Giovani Bernard are both history. That's gonna present some huge problems for Andy Dalton against this Baltimore defense that is second in the NFL, allowing only 295.1 yards per game. And a "D" that has 23 sacks and 11 interceptions through 10 games. The Bengals are on 0-4-1 run on the road straight up, with an ugly 0-5 reverse perfecto against the spread. All that - and some extra cranberry sauce - makes this my Best Bet.
SAINTS (-7) over Rams
Not thrilled about laying a touchdown with New Orleans, but Los Angeles basically has no offense. Even with No. 1 draft pick Jared Goff getting the start. The Rams have compiled a grand total of 39 points the last four times out, and at less than 10 points per game, things are gonna be rough in the Superdome. Drew Brees and his offense are averaging a tad over 30 points per game, and should be able to cover against the rookie QB.
BUCCANEERS (+6) over Seahawks
Better team in this matchup? Seattle, for sure, but a couple of issues for Pete Carroll's crew. They are basically mediocre on the road, with a 2-2-1 record this season, and the running game is kinda "eh." Tampa had a fabulous 19-17 win Sunday at Kansas City, one of the toughest places to play, and it was mainly due to smart, turnover-free ball. Jameis Winston has guided the Bucs to wins in four of the last six, and should at least stay close enough for us to cash a winning ticket.
Chiefs (+3.5) over BRONCOS
Apparently, Kansas City was looking ahead to Denver. The Chiefs looked preoccupied and it cost them. This week, KC will be on point. As the Chiefs have been on the road since the bye week, winning and covering three in a row. The Broncs still have the defense that led them to the Super Bowl crown, but allowing 30 and 23 points the last two weeks tells us there might be a few cracks in the armor. This is a field-goal game either way, so I would spend the extra money and buy the hook!
TEXANS (+1.5) over Chargers
All of a sudden, big bucks have come in on San Diego, and the Bolts have gone from a underdog to a road favorite. What? I mean really? The Chargers are 2-12 on the road in the last 14. Double V is playing against this money move.
FALCONS (-4.5) over Cardinals
After posting a 14-4 record last season, Arizona has gone into the proverbial dumpster. At 4-5-1, the playoffs are probably a pipe dream, and since the spread work is way in the red ink, with only three covers in the last 13, we fly with the Falcs.
Titans (-5) over BEARS
Thinking Tennessee grabs the "W," but laying five is a bit risky, so would suggest playing the money line instead.
BILLS (-7) over Jaguars
Jax has won only three of the last 23 on the road, so if you don't wanna lay seven, again, the money line is there for a reason.
DOLPHINS (-7.5) over 49ers
Fish on a 5-0 run, Niners on an 0-9 run. Kinda obvious who wins this game.
Giants (-7) over BROWNS
New Yorkers disappointed me Sunday, missing a PAT and failing to cover, but still think they roll in Cleveland.
RAIDERS (-3) over Panthers
Short week coming back from Mexico, so although we're looking toward the Silver & Black, staying in the light mode.
JETS (+8) over Patriots
No Gronk, and Tom Terrific is a little dinged, but New England still wins. Maybe just by a TD.