Chip Kelly's plan like Belichick's, sans Brady

Trying to figure out Chip Kelly's plan for the Eagles is like trying to put together a jigsaw puzzle whose 1,000 pieces have been strewn and hidden about the house. You have to know where to search just to find the pieces themselves, and it will take a while before you have any idea what the picture is supposed to look like.

What follows, then, comes with all the requisite caveats. Given that Kelly hasn't publicly discussed his strategy and likely won't until the NFL owners' meetings later this month, all anyone can do is offer a theory about what's ahead. Any such theory will be based on what Kelly has already done and said and on whatever insight those who have been inside his program might provide. This is one theory, one attempt to collect some pieces and start putting the puzzle together. Take it for what it's worth.

Here's what we know so far: Since assuming control of the Eagles' player-personnel department, Kelly has traded tailback LeSean McCoy, who would have counted $12 million against the Eagles' salary cap, for linebacker Kiko Alonso. He has released a succession of respected-if-pricey veteran players: Trent Cole, Cary Williams, Todd Herremans, James Casey. Kelly now has ample cap space available to reshape the roster.

We also know that Kelly has not yet reached a contract agreement with wide receiver Jeremy Maclin, who has said he wants to remain with the team. He has a quarterback, Nick Foles, who is entering the final year of his rookie contract, and there apparently has been no discussion of extending Foles' deal. The prospect rarely comes up in conversations about the Eagles' future, mostly because of the last thing we know: Kelly loves Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, who will be available in this year's draft.

OK, first puzzle piece. In an interview with WPEN-FM (97.5) earlier this week, before the McCoy trade happened, Herremans was asked if he thought McCoy would remain with the Eagles.

"It all just depends on how bad Chip wants him and if he thinks he's that instrumental in his offense," Herremans said. "If he feels he can get somebody cheaper and just plug him and still get production, then we'll see. I think he values the quarterback position in his offense the most - quarterback and offensive line. I think other than that . . . the system will take care of it."

That philosophy should sound familiar to anyone who has paid attention to the NFL since 2000, the year that the New England Patriots hired Bill Belichick as their head coach and, in the sixth round of the draft, selected a quarterback named Tom Brady. Over the successive 15 years, the Patriots have won four Super Bowls, six AFC championships, and 12 division titles, all with Belichick and Brady as their touchstones.

Kelly is a friend and admirer of Belichick, so it's instructive to examine how the Patriots have managed to maintain such excellence for so long, vis-a-vis Kelly's vision for the Eagles. If Herremans is correct, and Kelly values the quarterback and line positions most on offense, then that way of thinking is right in line with Belichick's.

Of the five longest-tenured New England offensive players during the entire Belichick era, four have been quarterbacks or linemen: Brady, Matt Light (11 years), Logan Mankins (nine years), and Dan Koppen (nine years). The fifth was Kevin Faulk, who spent 13 years with the Patriots because of his versatility, his reliability, and his cost-effectiveness. Faulk's biggest contract was a six-year, $15.05 million deal, a pittance compared with the five-year, $45 million contract that McCoy signed with the Eagles before the 2012 season.

Now consider the skill-position superstars who have played under Belichick. Randy Moss stayed three-plus seasons. Corey Dillon stayed just three. Wes Welker was a fixture over his reasonable five-year, $18.1 million free agent contract, but after the Patriots franchise-tagged him at $9.5 million for the 2012 season, his career in New England ended, and he signed with the Denver Broncos.

Finally, look at the team that won this year's Super Bowl. Of the seven longest-tenured offensive players on the 2014-15 Patriots, three were quarterbacks or linemen: Brady, Dan Connolly, and Sebastian Vollmer. Running back Shane Vereen, a free agent, reportedly was looking for $5 million a year to re-sign, a figure New England had no interest in matching. And though Rob Gronkowski, perhaps the most dynamic tight end in the league, is signed through 2019, his salary-cap hit doesn't match McCoy's $12 million until the contract's final year.

So: a great quarterback, a solid and consistent offensive line, and the financial and strategic flexibility to turn over players at the skill positions. That's what the Patriots' puzzle picture has looked like. It might just be similar to the one Kelly wants to assemble for the Eagles. As for whether he'll try to find that first and all-important piece in this year's draft, feel free to draw your own conclusions.

@MikeSielski