Still nothing firm about whether Papelbon will remain with Phillies

ALTHOUGH THE TALKS concerning Phillies lefthander Cole Hamels and first baseman Ryan Howard have quieted as the hot-stove league winds down, Jonathan Papelbon's name continues to populate the trade-rumor mill.

Are trade talks dead or alive? Will he stay or will he go?

Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has said throughout the last month that he expects both Hamels and Howard to be with the team when the season opens at Citizens Bank Park on April 6. But does he expect Papelbon to be in Clearwater, Fla., when pitchers and catchers hold their first workout of the spring on Feb. 19?

"With Pap, right now I think he probably will, but that could change," Amaro said in a telephone interview yesterday. "We're still having discussions on a couple different fronts with regard to the players we have."

Two weeks ago, Yahoo Sports reported that the Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers had "serious discussions" about a trade involving Papelbon. Whether progress has been made in those discussions in the time since is unknown.

Here's what is known:

* Papelbon has a limited no-trade clause in his contract; he can block a trade to Milwaukee. That's not likely, however, given his stated desire to pitch for a contender.

* Although Papelbon's record 4-year, $50 million contract expires after this season, it does include a vesting option for 2016; the option kicks in with 48 games finished in 2015.

* To waive his no-trade clause, Papelbon could demand that Milwaukee (or any team on his no-trade list) guarantee that 2016 option, regardless of how many games he finishes this season.

* If Papelbon is due $13 million in 2016 - in addition to the $13 million he's guaranteed this season - the Phillies are willing to take on some of that financial obligation as long they can get an attractive prospect (or two) in return from Papelbon's new team.

*  The Brewers have not signed a free-agent closer in the 2 weeks since the Papelbon talks surfaced. Francisco Rodriguez, who has pitched for Milwaukee in each of the last four seasons, remains on the free-agent market.

But just how much does Milwaukee want Papelbon? Are they willing to take on a portion of the $26 million and part with a premium prospect? Or would they rather sign Rodriguez or another free agent (Rafael Soriano is also still unsigned)?

Although MLB.com reported Toronto as another possible Papelbon trade partner, the Blue Jays are also on the closer's no-trade list. And Toronto's interest reportedly is mild, at best.

So until Milwaukee makes a move for another closer, the Papelbon chatter isn't likely to subside.

"I don't really believe in 'close,' or being confident in a deal getting done," Amaro said. "That just doesn't work. To me, it's pretty black or white: Something gets done or it doesn't. Right now, I think we have the people on our roster who are going to be in camp. But with one text, email or phone call, that might change."

Papelbon, 34, converted 39 of 43 save chances last season, despite seeing his average fastball velocity decline for a third straight season (from 94.8 mph in 2011 to 91.2 mph last season, according to PITCHf/x data).

His prickly personality also hasn't exactly made him a fan favorite in Philadelphia, where he famously performed an "equipment adjustment" on his way back to the home dugout at Citizens Bank Park after blowing a save in September; a seven-game suspension followed.

If the Phillies are able to move Papelbon, Ken Giles and Jake Diekman are candidates to step into the closer's role.