No need for Phillies to rush into a deal for Hamels

A WEEK FROM today the Phillies will alter the shape of their franchise, move their rebuild into the highest of high gears and shake the very foundation of Citizens Bank Park when they ship Cole Hamels to a contending team prior to the trade deadline.

Or they'll hold onto Hamels, and revisit the market this winter.

Which is the smarter play? Which of those options gets the front office to the finish line first, with "finish line" meaning "fielding a perennial contending team"?

With all of the posturing in the weeks leading up to next Friday, it's difficult to tell. What we do know is there appears to be more sellers than originally anticipated, so, unfortunately for Pat Gillick, Ruben Amaro Jr. and company, it's not exactly the most advantageous of markets.

Teams fearful of forfeiting premium prospects while taking on a pricey salary for the next three years, the combination it'll take to pry Hamels from the Phillies, could choose to go the cheaper route, dealing instead for one of the many rental players, including Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija and possibly David Price. The Houston Astros did just that Thursday, trading for soon-to-be free agent (and Houston native) Scott Kazmir, who was chosen two picks before Hamels in the 2002 draft.

That doesn't mean there still won't be plenty of interest in Hamels.

Los Angeles continues to be a perfect fit for team (the Dodgers, at least) and player (Hamels, a Southern California native, would probably prefer a National League team). In addition to giving the Dodgers a formidable trio of aces to take into their quest to advance to their first World Series in 27 years, a Hamels acquisition would also give them some insurance if Zack Greinke opts out of his current contract and then opts to sign elsewhere this winter.

But, the Dodgers are also not interested in parting with either of their top two prospects (Triple A infielder Corey Seager and 18-year-old lefthander Julio Urias, both recently rated as two of the top-four prospects in all of baseball by Baseball America). And the Phillies are likely to want at least one premium, can't-miss-type prospect in exchange for Hamels, a World Series MVP who is still in his prime, under a reasonable contract and arguably one of the top dozen starting pitchers in baseball.

Would the Phillies settle for, say, the Dodgers' third and fourth best prospects? Should they?

If Texas is also a serious option, why should the Phillies say, "Well, OK, who else you got?" if the Rangers make slugger Joey Gallo off-limits? Or if the Cubs are offering one of their middle infield types, Javier Baez or Starlin Castro, and not recently promoted slugger Kyle Schwarber?

Regardless of their current place in the standings, the Red Sox still make sense, too, since they need a top-of-the-rotation pitcher if they expect to win with their current core in 2016 and beyond. As with any team, they can dip into the vast free-agent market this winter, but, once again, a team in need of pitching is then weighing whether they'd rather pay Price, Greinke or Cueto a contract in the neighborhood of $200 million, along with forfeiting a first-round pick, or parting with a premium prospect or two and taking on the remainder of the minimum $76.5 million that Hamels would be owed through 2018.

When you look at it from that perspective, it might actually make a lot of sense to wait until the winter, when a new, Andy MacPhail-led front office will be in place, too.

Surely that's not the answer anyone in Philadelphia wants to hear - they want finality, as does Hamels - but Roy Halladay was once disappointed at a trade deadline only to find a new home the following winter when he was 32, the same age as Hamels will be this December, and his Toronto team still got what was then considered a reasonable return from the Phillies.

The baseball landscape has changed in the five years since the Halladay deal, with teams coveting prospects more than ever, but money matters, too. You only have to look at some of baseball's largest contracts - Justin Verlander, Robinson Cano - and the volatile nature of pitchers in general to see why a team this winter might prefer Hamels at three years and $76.5 million (or a maximum of four years and $94.5, if a vesting option is reached) over Max Scherzer-type money (seven years, $210 million) the top free agents will demand.

There are still seven more days left for an interested team to put their best offer forward. And, in the words of departed former manager Ryne Sandberg, perhaps the Phillies will still be "wowed" with that offer. Teams like the Dodgers and Cubs would still prefer to play in a World Series three months from now, so waiting until the winter might not be how they plan to go about their own business.

But, if you're the Phillies, it could very well be the best plan.

Let's say this was last year, and the very best offer the front office had for Hamels was a package that included a decent middle-of-the-rotation pitcher, a former first-round pick with some potential (but probably not a future All-Star) and a largely uncertain teenage prospect. Because that's what the Tampa Bay Rays received for Price: lefthander Drew Smyly, shortstop Nick Franklin and infielder Willy Adames.

The Phillies should not settle for that kind of return next week. They are under no pressure to trade Hamels.

Sure, Hamels wants out. But he has a say in the process, too. According to CBSSports.com, Hamels, who has a limited no-trade clause, isn't keen on places like Houston or Toronto, two organizations that have been interested in his services and also happen to have a bevy of intriguing prospects, too.

If the front office waits until the winter, Hamels, who has already been mentally beat down by the trade rumors, may open his mind wider to different destinations, which would ultimately benefit the Phillies, too.

Email: rlawrence@phillynews.com

Blog: ph.ly/HighCheese