Skip to content
Link copied to clipboard

Harris now has narrow lead over Trump in Pa.

Inquirer/NYT/Siena poll finds she picked up considerable ground in Philadelphia.
Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly leads former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to the poll from The Inquirer, New York Times, and Siena College.Read moreSteve Madden

Vice President Kamala Harris has a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania’s presidential race, an edge fueled by a rebound in support among young voters and voters of color that is particularly potent in the Democratic stronghold of Philadelphia.

A Philadelphia Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll taken shortly after the debate showed Harris with a nearly 4-point lead, within the survey’s margin of error, and significantly outperforming where President Joe Biden had been in May with key Democratic voting blocs.

And while voters here viewed her more favorably than Trump and dubbed Harris the winner of the recent presidential debate, the poll shows Harris is viewed as “too liberal” by a portion of the Pennsylvania electorate, and that a third of voters want more information on her with less than two months to go until Election Day.

The race remains extremely close in the battleground state where Trump and Harris have spent the most time — and money.

The Pennsylvania poll was conducted from Sept. 11 to Sept. 16, a week of favorable news coverage for Harris following the debate. The results in the crucial swing state are slightly better for Harris than a national survey from the NYT/Siena College during the same period — which found the race deadlocked, 47% to 47%.

“I feel Kamala Harris is more focused on unifying the country,” said Boronne Gao, a 24-year-old Democrat from West Philadelphia who didn’t vote in 2020. “Also, abortion is a huge factor. Just a lot of her views and policies align closer to my mind compared to Donald Trump’s.”


Harris has recovered young and nonwhite voters — especially in Philadelphia.

Harris is doing far better with young voters and Black voters than Biden had been in the state when he was the nominee. Overall, she polls 5 points higher here than Biden did in May, and fares 12 points better among voters under 29, and 12 points better among Black voters.

Nowhere were Harris’ gains over Biden more apparent than in Philadelphia, where 75% of voters expressed support for her, compared with just 54% for Biden in May. Although the margin of sampling error around both estimates is wide, the change is statistically significant.

Brianna Pembleton, 23, an Amazon delivery driver in the Yorktown section of the city, didn’t vote in 2020 and said he likely would not have voted for Biden but is planning to support Harris.

“She’s a person of color. And I’m a person of color, so she could make some decisions that will help us more,” Pembleton said.

Philadelphia has historically powered statewide Democratic victories, though its turnout has lagged relative to the rest of the state in some recent elections. Harris’ campaign has put a premium on Philadelphia, where she stopped to meet with college student leaders during a campaign swing Tuesday.

While there’s an uptick in support for Harris among young voters, there’s also a wide gap between the state’s youngest and oldest voters when it comes to enthusiasm about voting in the election.

“I just don’t think people’s voices are being represented or listened to by Democrats at any level,” said Reese G., a 24-year-old Jill Stein voter from Pittsburgh who took the poll and asked that his full name not be published. He said he’s hoping to be persuaded to back Harris but hasn’t been yet, frustrated over the Biden administration’s handling of the war in Gaza and what he sees as Democrats ignoring or repressing the voices of progressives.

“It’s not even like the apathy with Democrats. … It’s just like the outright hostility.”

Gloria Johnson, a retired barber teacher from Philadelphia, by contrast said she was very enthusiastic about voting for Harris, the first woman of color to serve as a major-party nominee.

“Our ancestors died for it. I have not forgotten that. It’s extremely important for particularly people of color to vote and our people in particular, Black Americans,” she said. “It’s different than any other election that I’ve been involved in as a voter or as an election board person. It look different, it feel different, it is different. And we need change.”


Harris was clear debate winner

While both candidates claimed victory in the first, and to date only, presidential debate, Pennsylvania voters saw a clear winner: Harris. More than two-thirds of respondents thought Harris did well in the debate, compared with 36% who gave Trump a positive performance review.

How far that takes her in a race that remains stubbornly close, even following a postdebate bounce, is unclear.

“Trump — his arguments seemed more personal and he wasn’t really trying to inform about what he would start doing or stop doing,” Pembleton said. “It just seemed like rebuttals. And Kamala was actually stating facts.”

“She handled herself very well and spoke directly to the people,” said Jessica Storment, a 27-year-old interior designer from Northern Liberties. ”She used words like us and you and the people instead of me and my like he did.”

Even 43% of registered Republicans and 36% of 2024 Trump voters in the state thought Harris did well, though several doubted it would change minds.

Paul Judd, a 52-year-old modular-home dealer from Wyoming County, is a Republican backing Trump who acknowledged he thought Harris did well. It didn’t change a simple fact motivating his vote, though:

“I don’t like the way things are now and I associate the way things are now with Harris.”


Trump still favored on the economy, but Harris has made up some ground

Trump is still leading on the biggest issue to voters in the race — the economy, which he is trusted to handle better compared with Harris by 51% to 47%.

That’s a touch better than Biden’s standing among likely voters in May, but Harris’ improvement is still within the margin of error — meaning she’s still at a disadvantage.

“I literally just came from the market and it cost me $60, I walked out with barely anything,” said Shawn Marrandino, a 41-year-old forklift operator from Philadelphia. Marrandino said his $21-an-hour wage is barely enough to get by.

“If I worked 60 hours a week, I should be able to live. I got a car payment, I have rent, I have child support. I shouldn’t be struggling.”

Marrandino, who did not vote in 2020, is backing Trump this year. “I just feel like the man, he stands more for strength and nobody will mess with us. You know what I mean?”

Even some of Harris’ supporters are conflicted on the issue. Kristal Bush, a 35-year-old small-business owner, said there are things about Trump’s promises to boost business that sound attractive.

“Just seeing how some of those credits will, you know, just support me,” she said. But ultimately when Bush looks outside of her circumstance, she thinks Harris “will help people … at least start getting ahead and not allowing the rich to just get richer.”

Harris has tried in recent weeks to respond to concerns about the administration’s record on the economy. In direct questions about inflation, she has shifted to talking about her own working-class upbringing and cited plans for small business loans and tax incentives for first-time home buyers.

“I love that she’s talking about working for middle-class people,” said Johnson, the retiree from Philadelphia.

Storment, the interior designer, said she likely would not have voted if Biden had remained the nominee but feels recognized by Harris.

“She seems to care about my generation and helping us to be able to buy a house for the first time, be able to afford groceries,” Storment said.

Harris also trails Trump on immigration, the former president’s strongest issue, on which 52% of voters trust him, compared with 44% who trust Harris. He also has a 7-point advantage on fracking. Harris is favored 59% to 34% on abortion and 52% to 43% on democracy.

Harris is also more popular overall with voters in the state, where 51% rate her favorable compared with 45% who describe Trump that way.


Trump’s opportunities in Pa.

Despite momentum in Harris’ favor, the poll’s finding comes with caveats — and opportunities for Trump.

Among Pennsylvania voters, Harris is viewed as “too liberal or progressive” by more voters than those who view Trump as “too conservative.”

“Donald Trump, you know, I feel like he’s on the right path of what America, truthfully, stands for,” said Kylie Dickens, 25, a shampoo assistant from West Grove who describes herself as a moderate. “Our right to freedom as citizens of a country, vs., you know, on Kamala’s side more or less, more, you know, very socially progressive and leaning more towards less freedom as individuals.”

Harris’ support among young voters could be somewhat precarious. Only 57% of young voters say they are certain to vote, compared with 68% statewide, and just 80% are sure of their choice in November.

And while she has been vice president for four years, about 24% of likely voters said they still need to learn more about her, whereas 93% of voters said they have all the information they need on Trump.

That presents a hurdle with just under two months to go, and also an opportunity, particularly among the 3% of voters who say they are undecided in the state that could be the gateway to the White House.

Daniele Fedonni, a 34-year-old biostatistician at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, is one of those undecided voters and an example of how Harris’ appeals to the center in tight states like Pennsylvania could alienate some progressives. Fedonni voted for Biden in 2020 but has been put off by Harris’ shift rightward on issues like fracking, Medicare for all, immigration, and the war in Gaza.

“She’s just trying to push through the worst campaign in the quickest amount of time by being Hillary or Joe Biden,” Fedonni said. “You can’t keep running on ‘My name is not Trump.’”

Camille Baker of the New York Times and staff writer Fallon Roth contributed to this article.

Link copied to clipboard