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Will surprising Colombia keep it going Thursday? Our best bet is on the over vs. Morocco

Should bettors expect a wide-open match on Thursday morning?

Colombia's players celebrate after Colombia's midfielder Manuela Vanegas scored her team's second goal during the Australia and New Zealand 2023 Women's World Cup Group H football match between Germany and Colombia at Sydney Football Stadium in Sydney on July 30, 2023. (Photo by FRANCK FIFE/AFP via Getty Images)
Colombia's players celebrate after Colombia's midfielder Manuela Vanegas scored her team's second goal during the Australia and New Zealand 2023 Women's World Cup Group H football match between Germany and Colombia at Sydney Football Stadium in Sydney on July 30, 2023. (Photo by FRANCK FIFE/AFP via Getty Images)Read moreFRANCK FIFE / AFP via Getty Images
    by Michael Leboff, Action Network
    Published 

Colombia has been one of the surprise packages of the 2023 Women’s World Cup so far. Las Chicas Superpoderosas put themselves in the driver’s seat in Group H with a huge upset over Germany and can clinch the top spot in the table by getting a point against Morocco Thursday morning (6 a.m. ET).

Bookmakers make Colombia -900 to get at least a draw in this tilt, which begs the question: Is the market overreacting to an impressive two-match sample size from the South Americans?

Colombia vs. Morocco prediction: Analysis

While Colombia’s mission is simple — just get a point — it’ll take a minor miracle for Morocco to make its way into the Round of 16. The Lionesses of Atlas’ most feasible path to the knockout round is a win against Colombia and then hoping that South Korea avoids defeat against Germany. Morocco can also get through with a draw as long as Germany loses to South Korea, but the odds of that happening are pretty slim (+1200 to be exact).

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All of this sets up a pretty interesting game theory scenario. Morocco will need to do everything it can to get the win on Thursday, while Colombia may be best suited to play things closer to the vest. That should not be a huge issue for Colombia, which has allowed just one goal and 2.2 expected goals in two matches Down Under.

While Colombia’s defensive prowess has been on display in this tournament, it’s not been as pretty for Morocco, which allowed five goals to Germany and has conceded 3.6 xG in two matches. And with Morocco needing to play on the front foot from the opening whistle, there could be plenty of chances for Colombia to hit Morocco on the counterattack.

A goal from either side would open things up considerably as it would force whoever concedes to kick things into high gear. The price on Morocco seems tempting, but my best bet for this match is a play on the Over 2.5 at +130.

Colombia vs. Morocco prediction: Pick

  1. The Bet: Over 2.5 (+130, DraftKings)

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