Japan cruised through the group stage, but a tough test awaits in the knockout stage vs. Norway

It’s fair to say that Japan was the most impressive side in the group stage of the 2023 Women’s World Cup. Not only did Japan win all three of its matches, but it also led the field in goals scored (11), goals allowed (0), expected goals created (9.9) and was third in expected goals conceded (0.9).

By the time Japan was wrapping up its 4-0 win over Spain — the second-favorites to win the whole tournament — bookmakers had slashed Japan’s titles odds to +900 from a pre-tournament price of +2800. No team’s stock has risen as much as Nadeshiko Japan.

While Japan has been a runaway train in the group stage, Norway has been a bit uneven. The Grasshoppers started on the wrong foot with a 1-0 loss to New Zealand and then were uninspiring in a nil-nil draw against Switzerland. Norway would turn things around in a 6-0 rout of the Philippines, but they needed New Zealand to stumble against the Philippines and Switzerland to qualify for the Round of 16.

But all of that is now in the past. Norway and Japan may have taken very different routes to get to the knockout stage of the tournament, but all that matters now is that they’re still in the dance.

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The betting pattern for this match seems like it will be pretty straightforward. It’s pretty hard to imagine that folks will be rushing to the window to try and beat Japan — especially after the performance against Spain — while Norway has not done much to instill confidence outside of taking care of the Philippines.

That right there tells you which side is going to hold value on Saturday morning. Japan is going to be a popular favorite even at the current -145 price on the three-way moneyline and the lopsided action should drive up the price on Norway as we get closer to kickoff.

And it’s not like Norway is some also-ran here to make up the numbers. Had these two teams met a couple of weeks ago this line would be a lot tighter, but Japan ran roughshod through Group C, while the Grasshoppers needed a lot of help just to finish second in a group they were favored to win.

Perhaps Japan is a runaway train and won’t be stopped, but the price on Norway is worth a shot, especially since it should only go up as we get closer to Saturday morning.

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