Is the USWNT on upset alert Sunday morning? Backing Sweden provides a lot of value to bettors

The United States Women’s National Team has yet to click into gear at the 2023 World Cup.

The tournament favorites went 1-2-0 (W-D-L) with a +3 goal difference, but looked out of sorts at time despite playing in a relatively soft group.

As pedestrian as the USWNT looked in their first three matches, nobody will remember a lackluster performance in the group stage if the team is able to bounce into form and make a run in the knockout rounds.

To do that, Team USA will need to beat Sweden, which topped Group G with a perfect 3-0-0 record, on Sunday morning (5 a.m. ET).

Drawn into a straightforward group with Vietnam, Portugal and the Netherlands, the USWNT was not expected to really endure any adversity in the first part of the World Cup. The Netherlands were the only team half-expected to be a thorn in their side, but the Americans still went off as a sizable favorite in that match.

» READ MORE: The USWNT is no longer a World Cup favorite after a disappointing group stage performance

That’s not how things went. While they were able to roll past Vietnam, they didn’t blow them out as expected — the spread was bouncing between 5.5 and 6 goals, but the USWNT never came close to covering the number — and never looked all that convincing in draws against the Netherlands and Portugal.

Finishing runners-up to the Netherlands ended up being a big deal for the Americans as the Dutch will take on South Africa in the Round of 16, while the Yanks have to tussle with Sweden, the third-ranked team in the world according to FIFA.

The Swedes looked every bit a contender in the group stage. They won all three of their matches and posted a +8 goal difference (9 GF, 1 GA) and a +5.3 expected goal differential. Despite posting considerably stronger numbers than the USWNT, Sweden will go off as a decent underdog in this match.

» READ MORE: Japan cruised through the group stage, but a tough test awaits in the knockout stage vs. Norway

Currently, Sweden is +140 to make it to the quarterfinals and +260 to beat the USWNT inside 90 minutes. The USWNT, meanwhile, are sitting as -175 favorites to advance and are +105 to win in regulation. This could end up being the first time the USWNT goes off at plus-money on the three-way moneyline in this tournament.

If you’re looking for positive expected value from this match, there’s no doubt that Sweden is the right side. Bookmakers weren’t born yesterday and know that they can hang any number on the Americans and still attract plenty of action from casual punters looking to sweat with the Stars & Stripes. That means you’re almost always going to pay a tax when you bet on the USWNT.

Oftentimes in betting you need to wear the black hat and this will be one of those instances. It may not be fun to bet against Team USA, but it’s the right thing to do if you’re looking for the best value on Sunday.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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