Atlantic 10 Tournament predictions: Fade favored VCU; lay the points with Dayton

The top four seeds in the Atlantic 10 Tournament not only survived and advanced to the semifinal round, they barely broke a sweat in the process.

No. 1 seed VCU and No. 4 seed Saint Louis annihilated their quarterfinal opponents on Thursday by a combined 46 points.

And while No. 2 seed Dayton and No. 3 seed Fordham had a bit more of a challenge in their opening-round contests, both had double-digit leads with less than 10 minutes to play.

Should we expect more lopsided action when the four survivors return to the hardwood Saturday at Barclays Center in Brooklyn following Friday’s off day?

Not if you believe the betting odds, as the top two seeds are just modest favorites — even though they went a combined 3-0 in the regular season against their respective semifinal foes.

Here’s how we’re betting Saturday’s Atlantic 10 Tournament matchups.

Odds updated as of 4:30 p.m. on March 10.

Analysis: We recommended betting on VCU to follow up its Atlantic 10 regular season title with a conference tournament championship.

Then the Rams (25-7, 16-15-ATS) went out and made a statement in their A-10 tournament opener Thursday, running their winning streak to seven in a row with a 71-53 thumping of No. 8 seed Davidson as a 7-point favorite.

However, Saint Louis’ quarterfinal victory was even more emphatic — the Billikens throttled fifth-seeded George Mason 82-54, easily cashing as a 5-point chalk.

Saint Louis (21-11, 13-17-1 ATS) has now won five of its last seven and six of its last nine. Two of the three losses? Yep, to VCU.

The Rams traveled to Missouri on Feb. 3 and won 73-65 as a three-point road underdog. Then in the penultimate game of the regular season 25 days later, VCU overcame a four-point halftime deficit, outscored the Billikens 48-32 in the final 20 minutes and cruised 79-67.

Once again, the Rams cashed, this time as a 7-point favorite.

Saint Louis shot 40%-plus both from the field and from 3-point range in each game. The Billikens also held their own on the boards (VCU had a combined 64-63 edge).

The difference in both contests? Saint Louis was sloppy with the basketball, committing a combined 31 turnovers.

Since the loss at VCU, The Billikens have been much better in the turnover department, committing 16 total miscues in consecutive wins over Dayton and George Mason.

» READ MORE: CBB predictions: Three picks for Friday’s conference tournament action

That’s far better than their season average of 12.0 per contest (which actually is below the Division I average).

Despite playing hot potato with the basketball, Saint Louis still had a chance to win both games against the Rams. If the Billikens protect the ball Saturday, they should be able to hang with VCU once again.

Hang long enough to pull off the outright upset? We won’t go that far — we still like the Rams to cut down the nets in Brooklyn.

But Saint Louis did tie for the second-best record in the A-10 — its 12-6 mark matched that of Dayton and Fordham. The Billikens also own non-conference wins over Memphis (home) and Providence (neutral site), as well as close losses at Auburn (65-60 road) and Boise State (57-52 home).

In other words, they’re not pushovers.

So we’ll respect the slim point spread in this contest and call for the third VCU-Saint Louis showdown to be the most competitive of the bunch.

Prediction: Saint Louis +3.5

Analysis: On the surface, the fact that Dayton is a bigger favorite over the A-10 Tournament’s No. 3 seed than VCU is over the No. 4 seed seems strange.

After all, the Flyers had a tougher time putting away their quarterfinal opponent (60-54 win over St. Joe’s) than Fordham did in its first tourney game (69-61 win over La Salle).

In fact, of the four teams still alive, Dayton (21-11, 15-17-1 ATS) is the only one that didn’t cover in the quarterfinals — the Flyers were a 10.5-point favorite.

Also, Fordham comes into Saturday’s game on a 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS run.

So why is Dayton such a clear favorite Saturday?

Well, for one thing, in the only meeting between the schools this season, the Flyers didn’t just win, they won on the road … by an 82-58 margin … as a 7.5-point favorite.

Dayton was unconscious from the field in that Jan. 10 battle, shooting 64% — no wonder the Flyers cruised to the 24-point win despite committing 16 turnovers.

Now, to Fordham’s credit, it bounced back from that Jan. 10 beatdown with a five-game winning streak. That included four outright upsets (including a 10-point win over Saint Louis as a 4-point underdog).

However, the Rams caught a big scheduling break this year — they only played VCU, Dayton and Saint Louis once each. And while they took care of business at home against the Billikens, they were noncompetitive against Dayton and VCU (80-61 road loss as an 8-point underdog).

To further emphasize the scheduling point, consider this: VCU is the highest rated A-10 team per KenPom (No. 70) and the NCAA’s NET rankings (No. 63).

Dayton is second in both (No. 74 and No. 75), and Saint Louis is third (No. 94 and No. 96). Fordham? It’s fourth in KenPom and third in NCAA NET — at Nos. 139 and 130, respectively.

Translation: We’ve got a mismatch on our hands in the A-10 nightcap. Lay the points with the Flyers and watch them have their way with Fordham again.

Prediction: Dayton -5.5

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