Back the Bears to cover as heavy underdogs against the Chargers Sunday night

Primetime NFL games have seen plenty of big spreads this season as the schedule has been a bit underwhelming to say the least. One of the biggest spreads of the primetime slate this season takes place Sunday night when the Bears take on the Chargers as 8.5 point underdogs.

Chicago are massive underdogs no matter which NFL betting site you use. The spread opened at 5.5 points but rose three points due to Justin Fields not being under center for the Bears.

That said, I have faith in Chicago to cover the spread on BetMGM (-115 odds). Tyson Bagent played well in his season debut and I haven’t seen enough from the Chargers this year to be convinced they can have their way with any opponent.

(Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST, NBC)

Even though my pick is for Chicago to cover, I want to focus more so on Los Angeles and why I don’t think they’re worthy of being 8.5 point favorites.

The Chargers follow a similar script every year where they have a stout roster on paper and high expectations entering the season. But they always find ways to shoot themselves in the foot and never maximize their potential whether it’s penalties, turnovers, or defensive lapses.

History is repeating itself through their first six games, as their record is 2-4. Los Angeles’ two wins have come by four and seven points. 12 of their 17 games last season finished within one possession. Ten of their 17 games in 2021 finished within one possession.

Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler remain the trusted targets of Justin Herbert, but there isn’t much behind them. With Mike Williams out for the year, it’s no secret the best strategy for defenses is just to focus on those two players.

Credit is due to Los Angeles for ranking 11th in scoring and eighth in yards. Herbert’s a talented quarterback, but he’s completed less than 60% of his passes and has four interceptions in the three games since Williams left the lineup. They’re not a great offense at converting third downs either (19th).

But the defense has been just as concerning as the offense. Joey Bosa simply hasn’t been what the Chargers pay him to be. Khalil Mack has seven sacks but six of them came in one game. JC Jackson was let go and Derwin James has only made a couple of noteworthy plays.

That all being said, Chicago doesn’t get off clean for having a disappointing season in their own right at 2-5. They looked like a lifeless team early in the year and were the talk of the league for Fields not growing as a passer and their defense allowing 34.3 points per game through four games.

But credit is due to the Bears defense for allowing just 20, 19, and 12 points the last three weeks. Although the offenses they faced in those games were the Commanders, Vikings in their first game without Justin Jefferson, and Raiders.

Offensively is where I think the Bears can control the time of possession and exploit the Chargers defense that ranks second to last in total yardage.

Bagent isn’t likely to light up the stat sheet with a passing attack that scorches Los Angeles. But Bagent showed poise and calm under center and was aided by an offensive line that’s improved each week.

If Chicago’s ground game can run like it did last week and limit the amount of possessions Herbert has, that’ll help keep this game close. D’Onta Foreman has looked fantastic the last couple of weeks and can also aid Bagent catching out of the backfield.

The bottom line is neither of these teams have had the seasons they’ve expected. Los Angeles are the better team without question. But until I see them collect a few statement wins, I can’t back them to cover a spread as large as 8.5 points.

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