Bengals vs. Bills prediction: Back underdog Cincinnati on Sunday in Buffalo

Survive and advance. That’s the name of the game when the postseason rolls around in any team or individual sport.

Well, survive and advance is precisely what the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills did in last week’s AFC wild card playoffs.

Barely.

Although both took the field as big home favorites, the Bills (34-31 over Miami) and Bengals (24-17 over Baltimore) needed fourth-quarter rallies to keep their seasons alive.

Now, some three weeks after their regular-season matchup in Cincinnati was called off following a scary on-field medical emergency, the two squads will clash in frosty upstate New York in Sunday’s win-or-go-home AFC Divisional Playoff matchup.

It’s a battle featuring two of the league’s top young quarterbacks, two of the league’s hottest teams and two legit Super Bowl contenders.

Yet despite those similarities, NFL oddsmakers strongly believe there’s a significant talent gap between the two sides. Our Bengals vs. Bills prediction contradicts that assertion.

Odds updated as of 11:15 a.m. ET on Jan. 20.

Confused. Befuddled. Perplexed.

Pick your favorite head-scratching adjective — all apply to how we feel about the line movement in this contest.

After Cincinnati completed its comeback win over the Ravens on Sunday night, Buffalo was installed as a 3.5- to 4-point favorite.

Within 36 hours, that point spread shot up to Bills -5. It then jumped again to the current consensus number of Bills -5.5.

All the while, the majority of the early betting action — both tickets and dollars — was on the Bengals.

That’s a strong indication that, within the wagering community, Bengals vs. Bills is shaping up as a Pros vs. Joes battle.

Ordinarily, we don’t like to be on the “Joes” side of such a showdown. But in this case, we can’t help it.

» READ MORE: NFL playoffs odds: Bettors backing Giants, Bengals in Divisional Round

First, let’s go back to Jan. 2 in Cincinnati. Before Bills safety Damar Hamlin suffered his horrific cardiac arrest that ultimately led to the game being canceled, the Bengals had a 7-3 lead a little more than nine minutes into the first quarter.

Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow was 4-for-4 for 52 yards and a touchdown, and the team had 66 yards total yards on just seven plays. The Bills put up 68 yards and a field goal in their two possessions (11 plays).

Obviously, there’s not much to glean from less than a quarter of action. But it was pretty clear on that Monday night that the Bengals can hold their own against Buffalo.

And there’s reason to believe they’ll be able to do so for 60 minutes Sunday afternoon, even on the road. After all, Cincinnati has been more than holding its own for nearly four months.

Since opening the season with upset losses to Pittsburgh (home) and Dallas (road), the Bengals are 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS. Not only will they arrive in Buffalo on a nine-game winning streak, but they’ve covered the spread in 13 consecutive games against teams not named the Ravens and Browns.

Yes, both losses during the 14-2 run came on the road: 19-17 at Baltimore in Week 5 and 32-13 at Cleveland on Halloween (the first of five straight games the Bengals played without star receiver Ja’Marr Chase).

However, Cincy has won four straight road games since that Halloween nightmare in Cleveland. And it hasn’t been all about Burrow, Chase and the offense.

In fact, the Bengals are giving up just 17.7 points in their last seven overall, with five of those opponents scoring 18 or fewer.

Certainly, there were some cupcakes in there. But this seven-game stretch includes a 27-24 home win over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Along with Kansas City, Buffalo will be the most talented, most complete opponent the Bengals have faced all season.

Like Cincinnati, the Bills are on a roll, having won eight straight since a wild, 33-30 overtime home loss to Minnesota in Week 10. However, not one of those eight victories was against a team as good as the Bengals.

And only two were true blowouts: 24-10 at New England in Week 14 and 35-13 at Chicago in Week 17 (and the Bears went an NFL-worst 3-14 this season).

Among Buffalo’s close calls were a trio of three-point wins — one at Detroit on Thanksgiving; two at home against Miami.

The first two victories were courtesy of final-play field goals. Then in last week’s home playoff game — with Miami fielding its third-string quarterback, backup running back and multiple reserve offensive linemen — Buffalo again won by just three points.

Besides failing to cover the spread in each of those three-point victories, the Bills are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall and 1-5 ATS in their last six in Buffalo.

» READ MORE: Super Bowl odds: Eagles down to fourth choice to win it all

The team’s only cover at home since Week 5? A season-ending 35-23 win over New England as an 8-point favorite — a game in which the Bills returned not one, but two kickoffs for touchdowns.

Now, for many in the wagering world, the argument for laying points with Buffalo centers around Cincinnati’s offensive line issues. Already down two starters, the Bengals lost a third last week when left tackle Jonah Williams suffered a dislocated kneecap.

Those injuries are very concerning, mostly because Burrow doesn’t have the same mobility as his Bills counterpart, Josh Allen.

But Miami had a banged-up O-line playing in front of a third-string quarterback last week. And while the Bills recorded four sacks, the Dolphins’ defense dropped Allen nearly twice as often (seven).

The reality is Buffalo’s pass rush hasn’t been the same since sack specialist Von Miller suffered a knee injury midseason.

Another important reality: Allen, who had three interceptions and three fumbles (losing one) against Miami last week, continues to be careless with the football.

He’s now thrown five picks in the last three games and 15 for the season (matching a career high).

Comparatively, Burrow has 12 interceptions, but four came in Week 1 against Pittsburgh. He’s been picked just four times in the last seven games.

In summary, even with Cincinnati’s offensive line troubles, we simply don’t see more than a field goal separating these two outstanding teams. So give us the points with the visiting Bengals, who are 20-5 ATS in their last 25 regular-season and playoff games.

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