CBB predictions: Three picks for Friday’s conference tournament action

Three No. 1 seeds. Three rubber matches. Five teams with 24-plus victories. Five teams ranked in the traditional Top 25. Four teams ranked in the KenPom Top 20. And three programs with a combined 13 NCAA Tournament championships.

If you’re looking for wagering advice on the marquee matchups highlighting Friday’s conference tournament slate, you’ve come to the right place.

Just a word of warning: If you happened to stumble upon our conference tournament betting previews, the wagering advice you’re about to read might look a wee bit familiar.

The reason? We’re backing three teams that were our top picks to win their respective conference tourneys.

Odds updated as of 12:15 p.m. ET on March 10.

Analysis: Earlier this week, we made a case for backing UConn to cut down the nets at the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden in New York.

The fourth-seeded Huskies completed the first of three steps of making good on that recommendation with Thursday’s 73-66 victory over No. 5 seed Providence in the quarterfinals.

It was a wire-to-wire win that included a 26-point second-half lead — but it wasn’t exactly easy. After tallying 56 points in the game’s first 32 minutes, UConn went ice cold, Providence heated up and the Huskies held on for dear life despite ending the game on the wrong end of a 32-15 run.

But at a time of year when the name of the game is “survive and advance,” UConn did just that.

So, too, did top-seeded Marquette, which had a much more difficult time with No. 8 seed St. John’s on Thursday.

In fact, the Golden Eagles trailed by as many as 14 points early on, were down 10 at halftime and needed overtime to escape 72-70 as an 8.5-point favorite.

» READ MORE: Big East Tournament prediction: Bet on UConn to cut down the nets in New York

So in a sense, both teams had stressful opening-round games. Yet both come into their semifinal clash on seven-game winning streaks.

Both also sport similar regular-season records (Marquette 25-6; UConn 24-7); both have identical point-spread records (20-11 ATS); and both held serve at home in two regular-season clashes.

So why are we laying points with the No. 4 seed against the No. 1 seed?

The answer to that requires a trip back in time to Feb. 7 — the date of the Golden Eagles’ most recent loss.

It was their only loss among six defeats this season that was by more than five points. And it was at UConn.

The Huskies rolled to an 87-72 rout as a 5-point home chalk, avenging an 82-76 upset defeat at Marquette in mid-January.

In the second meeting, the Golden Eagles made 44% of their shots from the field. They knocked down two more free throws than UConn (15 vs. 13) in three fewer attempts (20 vs. 23). They committed half as many turnovers (8 vs. 16). And they had nearly twice as many steals (11 vs. 6).

Yet despite all those advantages, Marquette still got its doors blown off by nearly as many points (15) as its combined margin of defeat in its first five losses (20).

How did it happen? Two main reasons: The Huskies shot 12-for-23 from 3-point range (Marquette went 5-for-21) and they had a 40-18 rebounding edge — including 17-5 on the offensive glass.

UConn also won the rebounding battle in the first meeting 34-21. That gives the Huskies a whopping 74-39 rebounding advantage in two meetings.

So why did UConn lose the first matchup? It didn’t connect from long range, going just 6-for-22 from beyond the arc.

Well, the Huskies come into Friday’s contest having made 39.7% of their 3-pointers over the last five games alone (including a 13-for-30 effort against Providence on Thursday).

Conversely, Marquette has shot 33.6% from distance in its last five (including 9-for-34 against St. John’s).

Flip it around, and UConn’s last five opponents have made just 30.3% of their long-range shots. Marquette’s last five foes are shooting 39% from downtown.

So, yes, the Golden Eagles are 6-2 ATS as an underdog this season, including four outright wins (including the one at home over UConn). But there’s a much bigger gap between these rivals than their Big East Tournament seeding suggests.

The Huskies — who covered in five straight games and six of the last seven — will prove as much Friday by handing Marquette its second lopsided defeat of the season.

Prediction: UConn -4

Analysis: Miami (25-6, 18-13 ATS) was our pick to win the ACC Tournament as the co-second choice behind favored Duke.

So we’re not jumping off the top-seeded Hurricanes’ bandwagon, even though they escaped their first-round tournament game against No. 9 seed Wake Forest on Thursday afternoon (74-72). And even though No. 4 seed Duke promptly followed with a 30-point beatdown of fifth-seeded Pitt (the Blue Devils’ seventh consecutive win).

For starters, those two results mean we’re getting excellent point-spread value in this ACC Tournament quarterfinal clash.

Oddsmakers understand that the college basketball betting market is overwhelmed with “square” (read: public) bettors at this time of year. And those bettors always fall victim to “What have you done for me lately?” recency bias.

Now throw in the Duke “brand,” its ACC-best seven-game winning streak, and the fact that Miami’s last three games were decided by a total of five points — including a two-point home win six days ago over the same Pitt team Duke annihilated on a neutral court Thursday?

Of course Joe Public is going to be all over the Blue Devils on Friday.

What Joe Public doesn’t realize — or conveniently has forgotten — is what happened in two previous Duke-Miami meetings this season.

On Jan. 21, the Hurricanes walked into Cameron Indoor Stadium and went toe-to-toe with the Blue Devils for 40 minutes. They ultimately fell 68-66, but easily cashed as a 6-point underdog.

Three weeks later, Duke (24-8, 13-19 ATS) went to South Beach for the rematch and, well, let’s just say Miami got some retribution. As in an 81-59 curb-stomping as a 3.5-point favorite.

» READ MORE: Bet on Miami to take ACC Tournament crown over Duke, Virginia

Now take a look at Miami’s blemishes this season:

The Canes have one ugly loss to Maryland (88-70 in a preseason tournament); two unforgivable losses at Georgia Tech (76-70) and vs. Florida State (85-84 after blowing a 23-point lead); and three other ACC road setbacks at Duke, Pitt and N.C. State by a total of seven points.

That’s it.

True, the Blue Devils have looked good of late. And they cashed in their last two wins over Pitt and North Carolina. But Duke hasn’t covered in three straight games all season.

In fact, in between opening the season with consecutive spread-covers and getting the money in the last two, Duke went 9-19 ATS.

Meanwhile, Miami has failed to cash in three straight games for the first time all season. Prior to that? The Canes were one of the best bets in college hoops (18-10 ATS).

They’re a good bet again Friday. Take the points (but you probably won’t need them).

Prediction: Miami +3.5 (-120)

Analysis: If we aren’t leaping off the UConn and Miami bandwagons, you can be sure we aren’t nosediving off Iowa State’s, either.

In our Big 12 Tournament betting preview, we suggested rolling the dice with the Cyclones at +1100 to cut down the nets in Kansas City. Part of our reasoning: They matched up well with the teams on their side of the bracket — particularly Baylor.

Sure enough, Iowa State took the court in Thursday’s quarterfinals in Kansas City and dumped the Bears 78-72 as a 4.5-point underdog.

It was the Cyclones’ third win in as many tries against Baylor, including the second in five days. (They went to Waco on Saturday and rolled 73-58 in the regular-season finale.)

Friday’s semifinal clash with Kansas figures to be a much stiffer test. The top-seeded Jayhawks followed Iowa State’s win by smacking No. 8 seed West Virginia 78-61 as a 3-point chalk.

Making the blowout more impressive? Hall of Fame head coach Bill Self missed the game with an illness that will sideline him for the remainder of the Big 12 tourney.

Obviously, the defending national champs had an outstanding campaign. They won the rough-and-tumble Big 12 regular season title outright, and they’re in consideration for the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.

All that said, this Kansas squad is hardly infallible. And Iowa State knows it.

» READ MORE: Bet Iowa State to win battle royal in college basketball’s best conference

Because just like UConn lost a close game at Marquette and hammered the Golden Eagles at home, and just like Miami lost a squeaker at Duke and crushed the Blue Devils at home, the Cyclones did the same thing in their two battles with the Jayhawks.

They went to Lawrence on Jan. 14 and fell 62-60 as a 7.5-point underdog, then cruised to a 68-53 home win as a 1.5-point underdog three weeks later.

No doubt, those two battles are fading in the rearview mirror as we reach mid-March. And it must be noted that since losing at Iowa State, Kansas is on an 8-1 roll, with the only defeat being Saturday’s nothing-to-play-for 75-59 loss at Texas.

Meanwhile, Iowa State has just one win against a team not named Baylor since trashing the Jayhawks in early February.

Still, the Cyclones aren’t a pushover, as their No. 19 KenPom rating suggests. And they know they can play with — and beat — the defending champs.

So take the points and watch Iowa State improve to 16-1-1 ATS (not a misprint) in its last 18 conference tournament games going back to 2014 — and be in position for another outright win.

Prediction: Iowa State +4.5 (-105)

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