Take Tennessee to cover vs. No. 1 Alabama Wednesday night at home

Alabama’s basketball team — emphasis on basketball — soared to the top of the national rankings this week for the first time in two decades.

The Crimson Tide’s reward for this achievement? A road game against talented and ticked-off Tennessee, which has slipped eight spots in rankings the last two weeks — from No. 2 to No. 10 — after suffering consecutive losses for the first time since March 2021.

Those losses for the Vols? Both were by a single point — and both on buzzer-beating 3-point shots.

Can Tennessee regroup, avoid its first three-game losing skid in more than three years and hand Alabama its first SEC setback of the season? Or will the Crimson Tide prove worthy of their No. 1 ranking and move a step closer to winning the regular season SEC championship for the second time in three years?

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Here’s our Alabama vs. Tennessee prediction for one of the most anticipated college hoops games of the season.

Odds updated as of 10:45 a.m. ET on Feb. 14.

Here’s what this matchup comes down to: Can Tennessee — which leads the nation in 3-point defense, ranks second in overall field-goal defense and gives up the third-fewest points per game — put the clamps on an Alabama offense that averages 83.4 points per contest, sixth most in the nation?

Short answer: Yes. But it will not be easy.

After all, since an 82-67 neutral-court loss to UConn at a Thanksgiving tournament, the Crimson Tide have been held under 70 points just twice. That was in back-to-back games last month against Mississippi State (66-63 home win) and Oklahoma (93-69 road loss).

That no-show at Oklahoma as a 4.5-point road favorite is one of just three defeats that Alabama has suffered all season. It’s also one of just three times in their last 13 games that the Crimson Tide (22-3, 16-9 ATS) failed to cover a point spread.

And that loss to the Sooners in an SEC/Big 12 Challenge clash is the only thing standing between Alabama and a 14-game winning streak.

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So, yes, this Crimson Tide team is good — like, Final Four-caliber good.

It’s just that they’re running into Tennessee (19-6, 13-12 ATS) at the wrong time and in the wrong place. And we say that while acknowledging that the Volunteers have dropped three of their last four contests (0-4 ATS); are 5-4 SU (4-5 ATS) in their last nine; and have cashed in just two of six SEC home games.

Without question, a team as good as Tennessee should not be in position to lose to Vanderbilt (as a 10-point road favorite) and Missouri (as a 12-point home chalk) — there’s simply no excuse for it.

But the fact both were walk-off losses on 3-point prayers is going to have the Vols completely jacked up for Wednesday’s showdown. The players understand this is a litmus-test game, one they cannot afford to lose on their home floor if they want to be seriously considered for a top-two seed in the NCAA Tournament.

So we’re confident Tennessee will bring its A-game, as will the Vols fans, who of course have no love lost for anything Alabama (regardless of sport).

Here’s what else is important to keep in mind: This point spread is depressed because of the two backbreaking losses Tennessee just suffered.

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Had the Vols not choked against Vandy and Mizzou, they would have one fewer victory than Alabama, the same number of losses and be just two games behind the Tide in the SEC standings. And they would be laying at least 5 points Wednesday night.

It’s also worth mentioning where these bitter rivals stand in the KenPom rankings. Alabama is No. 2, right behind Houston. Tennessee is sitting fifth.

Dive a bit deeper into the KenPom analytics and you’ll discover this nugget: The Tide are rated as the 32nd luckiest team in Division I. The Vols’ luck rating? 294th.

Good fortune may indeed be the residue of hard work, but … that’s a startling discrepancy, one that is due to even out a bit.

Regardless, as KenPom’s rankings suggest, these are two very evenly matched squads. We saw as much in late December, when Tennessee went to Tuscaloosa as a 7-point underdog and hung around the entire way in a 73-68 defeat.

That was the Vols’ third straight loss to Alabama (including a 71-63 home defeat as a 10.5-point favorite last season). Think that won’t be front of mind for the Vols and their fans Wednesday?

Look for Tennessee to play inspired basketball for 40 full minutes, get a big boost from the home crowd and extend this impressive streak: The Vols haven’t suffered consecutive losses at Thompson-Boling Arena since midway through the 2019-2020 campaign — a span of 53 games.

Play the short home favorite at BetMGM.

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