American Athletic Conference Tournament prediction: Is Houston vulnerable?

The No. 1 Houston Cougars are 27-2. That’s at least two more victories and two fewer losses than every other team ranked in this week’s Top 25. Houston is also 15-1 in American Athletic Conference action. That’s at least three more victories and three fewer losses than every other league rival.

So of course the Cougars have the shortest odds to reach this year’s Final Four (which is in Houston), the shortest odds to win the national championship and are heavily favored to win next week’s AAC Tournament.

But that doesn’t mean Houston will accomplish all three goals — or even one of them.

In fact, we believe there’s a good chance the Cougars stub their toe once more between now and Selection Sunday on March 12. And we think it’ll happen next week in Fort Worth, Texas, site of the AAC tourney.

Odds updated as of 3:45 p.m. ET on Feb. 28.

What’s not to like about Houston? Its two losses were by a total of seven points, including a six-point setback to an opponent (Alabama) that currently is ranked No. 2 in the Top 25 and No. 3 by analytics expert KenPom.

Also, the Cougars head into Thursday’s home game against Wichita State riding a nine-game winning streak since their stunning 56-55 home loss to Temple on Jan. 22.

So it makes complete sense that FanDuel has Houston as the -320 clear-cut favorite to win the AAC tournament.

However, coach Kelvin Sampson’s team hasn’t exactly been exceeding market expectations of late — Houston is 5-7 ATS since cashing in 12 of its first 17 games. That includes a quartet of single-digit victories over South Florida (83-77), Cincinnati (75-69) and Memphis (72-64) at home, plus Wichita State (70-61) on the road. Then, of course, there’s the upset home loss to Temple.

Another thing to consider before racing out and laying -320 odds on Houston to win the AAC tourney: Barring something highly improbable — like losing their final two regular season games to Wichita and Memphis, then getting bounced in their first-round game next week — the Cougars are getting a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

So as much as Houston would love to add a conference tournament crown to its regular season title, it’s not imperative to do so. After all, the Cougars have their eyes on a much bigger prize.

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If you believe the odds at FanDuel, there’s really only one team that qualifies as a “sleeper” in the AAC tourney: Memphis.

The Tigers (22-7) are a virtual lock to finish alone in second place in the league standings, thanks to a current 10-2 run that dates back to Jan. 15. One of the two losses was at Houston (and Memphis easily covered as a 14.5-point underdog). The other was a 90-89 overtime home loss to Tulane, which is in third place in the AAC.

The Green Wave (17-9) are tied with Cincinnati (19-11) as co-third choices to win the conference tournament. Both have had solid seasons, but it’s difficult to recommend either — even at the enticing +1500 odds FanDuel is offering.

Yes, Tulane swept the season series from Memphis. But the Green Wave got throttled in two meetings against Houston (80-60 at home; 89-59 on the road).

Meanwhile, Cincinnati has split its last 10 games, including two losses to the Tigers. The Bearcats did give the Cougars a battle in Houston (75-69 loss). But they also recently needed overtime to beat Temple at home (88-83) and lost at East Carolina (which is 5-10 in conference play).

Is it possible that Cincinnati and/or Tulane could make a run to the conference tournament semifinals? Sure. But that appears to be the ceiling.

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By now you’ve likely surmised that we’re taking a calculated shot with Memphis to win the AAC Tournament at +500 odds.

Coach Penny Hardaway’s team certainly has the athletes to get it done, led by guard Kendric Davis and forward DeAndre Miller. Davis leads the AAC in scoring at 21.3 points per game, while Williams (17.5) ranks sixth.

The Tigers, who close the regular season with Sunday’s home game against Houston, also are battle tested. Besides giving the Cougars all they could handle nine days ago, Memphis has quality wins over four SEC teams (Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Auburn and Ole Miss).

The Tigers also nearly toppled another SEC opponent: Alabama. On Dec. 13, they went to Tuscaloosa and fell 91-88 as a 7.5-point underdog. That was three days after Alabama went to Houston and ended the Cougars’ dreams of an undefeated season.

In all, Memphis’ seven losses this season are by a total of 27 points (none by double digits).

So no matter what happens in Sunday’s regular-season finale in Memphis, we’re backing the Tigers to avenge their 71-53 loss to Houston in last year’s AAC tournament title game and cut down the nets in Fort Worth.

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The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.