Back the Baylor Bears to win a close one Monday vs. Oklahoma State

Less than three weeks ago, Oklahoma State became the first team this season to walk into Iowa State’s arena and leave victorious, dumping the then 11th-ranked Cyclones 64-56.

With that upset as a 6.5-point underdog, the Cowboys’ ran their winning streak to five in a row (part of an overall 7-1 SU and ATS run).

Since then? It’s been all downhill for Oklahoma State — as in four consecutive losses and four consecutive non-covers (two at home, two on the road). The late-season swoon has dropped the Cowboys from safely in the NCAA Tournament to squarely on the bubble: Multiple pundits have Oklahoma State as one of the last four teams in the field of 68.

The good news for the Cowboys is they can enhance their résumé with a victory Monday against visiting Baylor, which is ranked No. 7 this week. College basketball oddsmakers believe such a victory is possible; they have this nationally televised Big 12 clash priced at a near pick-em.

We also expect a tight game — but one that ultimately will go the visitor’s way.

Odds updated as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Feb. 27.

We backed Baylor on Saturday and cashed easily, as the Bears overcame a sluggish first half and rolled to an 81-72 victory as a 4.5-point chalk.

One key reason we sided with the home favorite in that Top 10 matchup: Both teams have been tremendous at defending their home court this season and both have been subpar on the road.

So why not apply the same logic to Monday’s matchup — especially with Baylor having lost two in a row and three of its last four as a visitor? Three words: quality of competition.

The Bears’ recent road losses came against Texas, Kansas and Kansas State. Those teams are, respectively, ranked No. 9, No. 3 and No. 11 in this week’s Top 25 poll. They’re also respectively sitting No. 9, No. 7 and No. 19 in analytics expert KenPom’s rankings.

Oklahoma State, meanwhile, is nowhere to be found in the Top 25 — in fact, the Cowboys aren’t even among the 16 “others receiving votes” squads.

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Also, while KenPom has a whopping seven teams rated No. 24 or better — including Baylor at No. 13 — Oklahoma State is all the way down at No. 42.

Now, home-court advantage is obviously a big deal in college basketball. And winning on the road in the grueling Big 12 has been insanely difficult this season — and Baylor knows as much.

The Bears are a .500 team in conference road games. The four losses (Iowa State, Texas, Kansas, Kansas State) were by an average of 11.8 points. The four wins (West Virginia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and TCU) were by a total of 18 points.

That’s precisely why we’re recommending playing Baylor on the moneyline Monday — this doesn’t figure to be a runaway victory for the Bears.

Still, we trust them in this spot because they’re far more talented, and because Oklahoma State is reeling. After ugly losses to Kansas (87-76 home), TCU (100-75 road) and West Virginia (73-68 road), the Cowboys came home Saturday and couldn’t handle Kansas State, falling 73-68 as a 3.5-point home favorite.

Oklahoma State is now 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS against the top six teams in the Big 12. That includes a 74-58 loss at Baylor as a 7.5-point underdog back on Jan. 14.

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Even the Cowboys’ recent Big 12 home victories have been tight: 61-59 over Iowa State, 79-73 over TCU (which didn’t have its best player on the court) and 71-68 over Texas Tech.

What about the motivation factor Monday night? It definitely favors Oklahoma State.

As previously noted, this is a must-win game for the Cowboys, who are 16-13 on the season, including just 5-10 against quad 1 opponents. If they lose Monday, they’ll drop from “last four teams in” to “first four teams out”.

Baylor, on the other hand, doesn’t have such NCAA Tournament concerns. And at 10-6 in conference, the Bears trail first-place Kansas by two games. So they basically have no shot to win the regular season title.

Oklahoma State also has the revenge factor after its poor showing at Baylor. Plus, it’s Senior Night in Stillwater.

And guess what? All of those intangibles are baked into the short point spread.

But what matters most is that Baylor is the superior team — a team whose eight losses this season have come against opponents with the following KenPom rankings: No. 7 (Kansas), No. 9 (Texas), No. 12 (Marquette), No. 19 (Kansas State, twice), No. 23 (TCU), No. 24 (Iowa State) and No. 38 (Virginia)

And those defeats were offset by quality wins over Kansas, Texas, TCU, UCLA (KenPom No. 2), Gonzaga (No. 10) and West Virginia (No. 20).

Oklahoma State’s marquee victories other than the sweep of Iowa State and the home win over depleted TCU? There aren’t any.

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