Creighton vs. San Diego State predictions: Bet on a low-scoring South Region final

San Diego State knocked off a pair of double-digit seeds and a No. 1 seed en route to its first-ever NCAA Tournament Elite Eight.

Creighton knocked off a pair of double-digit seeds and a No. 3 seed en route to its second Elite Eight appearance (and first since 1941).

The Aztecs won their three March Madness games by a combined 36 points, with their suffocating defense yielding an average of just 57.7 points per contest.

The Bluejays won their three games by a combined 29 points, with their versatile offense putting up an average of 81 points per contest.

So not only does the South Region final feature an unexpected No. 5 vs. No. 6 seed matchup, but the participants have traveled parallel paths using dissimilar styles.

All of which makes Sunday’s Elite Eight battle in Louisville, Kentucky, extremely difficult to handicap. That’s why we’re passing on picking a side in Creighton vs. San Diego State and instead riding college basketball’s strongest current betting trend.

Odds updated as of 2:30 p.m. ET on March 25.

Your initial thought upon seeing the total for the South Region final probably was something along the lines of, “Boy, that seems really low!”

Understandable.

After all, Creighton’s scoring output has increased in all three NCAA Tournament games, going from 72 to 85 to 86. And the Bluejays have topped 80 points in five of their last seven dating to the end of the regular season.

Meanwhile, San Diego State’s hot-and-cold offense has percolated in its last two games. The Aztecs tallied 75 points in a blowout of No. 11 seed Furman and 72 in Friday’s stunning Sweet 16 upset of Alabama.

So a 133.5-point total in this matchup indeed looks short — until you realize that the Under has cashed in 11 consecutive San Diego State games (and 13 of the last 15). And it’s almost entirely due to a stifling defense that has been the program’s calling card not just this season but for more than a decade.

Just look at what the defense did to Alabama on Friday. The Crimson Tide shot just 32% from the field, missed 24 of 27 tries from beyond the 3-point arc, committed 14 turnovers and finished with their third-lowest points total of the season.

Freshman star and second-team All-American Brandon Miller’s numbers against SDSU: 3-for-19 shooting overall, 1-for-10 from 3-point land and nine points.

Keep in mind that Alabama had the seventh-best scoring offense during the regular season (82.8 points per game). And the Tide entered Friday on a five-game winning streak during which it had averaged 79 points.

Make no mistake, SDSU’s defense — which is ranked fourth in the country in adjusted efficiency by KenPom — is legit. And it’s nothing like Creighton has seen in the NCAA Tournament. Or all season.

The only comparable opponent the Bluejays have faced from a defensive perspective is UConn. The Huskies are 13th in adjusted defense per KenPom.

» READ MORE: UConn vs. Gonzaga prediction: Bet on the Huskies to punch Final Four ticket

Well, here’s what Creighton did two Big East games against UConn this year:

Jan. 7 on the road: The Blujays shot 33% overall, went 2-for-16 on 3-pointers and lost 66-60

Feb. 11 at home: The Bluejays shot 40% overall, went 5-for-16 on 3-pointers and won 56-53

Needless to say, both games were dead Unders — and both fell well below the posted total for Sunday’s Elite Eight contest.

The fact Creighton won that low-scoring second matchup against the Huskies leads to another important point: The Bluejays have chameleon-like characteristics in that they’re comfortable playing at any pace.

Sure, Creighton would prefer this to be an up-tempo, run-and-gun type of game. But SDSU isn’t going to allow it, and the Bluejays are just fine with that reality.

Of course, betting a total this low comes with risks — a couple of hot scoring stretches by one or both teams could put the Under in jeopardy. But we’re not overly concerned about that because the Aztecs’ perimeter defense is as stout and the team’s shooters are inconsistent.

For proof, check the final scores during SDSU’s 13-1 Under run:

72-52, 63-61, 82-71 (Over), 45-43, 77-58, 73-71, 66-60, 67-50, 64-61, 64-49, 62-57, 63-57, 75-52, 71-64.

So 10 of those 14 contests stayed Under 133.5 points. And 12 of 14 stayed Under 135.5 points.

As long as we avoid the dreaded overtime, we’re confident this one will be played in the 120s. Bet the Under at Caesars Sportsbook.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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