We’re on the Markquis Nowell train and riding Kansas State to break a Final Four drought and end FAU’s run
Bet on sensational point guard Markquis Nowell to lead Kansas State past the Owls in the East Region final
The last time Kansas State reached the Final Four, a loaf of bread cost 30 cents, the average house cost $13,050 and first-year head coach Jerome Tang was 2½ years from being born.
The year: 1964
The last time Florida Atlantic reached the Final Four? It’s never happened.
So one of the two schools will be making some surprising history Saturday night at Madison Square Garden in New York, where No. 3 seed Kansas State and No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic will square off in the NCAA Tournament East Region final.
Here’s how we’re betting an Elite Eight matchup that nobody saw coming.
Odds updated as of 3:30 p.m. ET on March 24.
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Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State Prediction: Pick
Kansas State -2 (at Caesars Sportsbook)
Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State Prediction: Analysis
There’s nothing negative to say about Florida Atlantic — absolutely nothing at all.
The Owls are 34-3 SU and 23-11-1 ATS. They’ve won 10 consecutive games, including posting two upsets in the NCAA Tournament — the most recent being Thursday’s 62-55 comeback win over No. 4 seed Tennessee in the Sweet 16. And they’re comfortable playing any style.
To be honest, we wouldn’t be shocked if FAU was still playing next weekend in Houston, site of the Final Four. And neither would oddsmakers, who have the Owls as a slim underdog in the Elite Eight.
It’s just that we’re not interested in betting against this Kansas State team, which has knocked off college basketball royalty — Kentucky and Michigan State — in consecutive games.
More specifically, we’re not interested in betting against Wildcats point guard Markquis Nowell. A fifth-year senior, Nowell has belied his (listed) 5-foot-8 stature by coming up huge in all three of his team’s tournament victories. And by huge we mean this: He’s tallied a combined 64 points, 42 assists, 11 rebounds and 11 steals.
In Thursday’s 98-93 overtime victory over No. 7 seed Michigan State, Nowell set an NCAA Tournament record with 19 assists while also scoring 20 points.
The final two points? Nowell scored those after he collected his fifth and final steal at midcourt, raced down the floor and converted a layup as time expired.
Not that Nowell, a New York native, is a one-man show. In fact, four Wildcats are averaging double figures in the postseason (three March Madness games, one Big 12 Tournament contest). Nowell’s main partner in crime? That would be senior forward Keyontae Johnson, who had a team-high 22 points against Michigan State. Johnson has now scored in double figures in 33 of 34 games, including the last 10 in a row.
Nowell, meanwhile, has reached double digits in 17 consecutive games and 31 of 34.
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While Nowell and Johnson are K-State’s two primary sparkplugs, the team’s entire engine has been humming lately.
Not only are forward Nae’Qwan Tomlin (11.5) and guard Desi Sills (10.0) also scoring in double figures in the postseason — which includes a Big 12 Tournament quarterfinal loss to TCU — but they’re shooting 58.8% and 52.6% from the field, respectively.
Six of the Wildcats’ top seven players are draining shots at a 47.8% clip or better since the regular season ended. The only one who isn’t? Nowell, who is shooting 45.6%.
What about FAU? Junior guard Johnell Davis has been a handful in six total Conference USA and NCAA tournament games, averaging a team-high 17.7 points and 6.5 rebounds per contest while shooting 52.3%. However, fellow guard Alijah Martin (14.8 ppg) is the only other Owls player averaging double figures in the postseason. And among the five FAU players who have averaged more than 20 minutes of court time per game in the postseason, only two — Davis and 7-foot-1 center Vladislav Goldin (54.3%) — are shooting better than 43% from the field.
As a team, the Owls have shot just 38%, 41% and 42% in three March Madness wins over No. 8 seed Memphis, No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson and No. 4 Tennessee, respectively. They were just fortunate that all three of those opponents couldn’t make shots either (43%, 38% and 33%).
Sure, FAU’s defense deserves a lot of credit for those latter numbers. But on Saturday, that defense is facing an opponent with seven different players who can shoot and score.
To that point, Kansas State (26-9, 23-12 ATS) is shooting 50.2% overall and averaging 79.6 points over its last five games. And that includes two losses to TCU and West Virginia.
So while we totally respect the Owls, who had only played in one March Madness game in school history prior to last week, they’re going up against a completely different beast in this contest.
Lay the points with K-State, which is looking more and more like a team of destiny — thanks in no small part to the team’s diminutive point guard.
Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State Odds (via Caesars Sportsbook):
Point spread: FAU (+2) vs. Kansas State (-2)
Moneyline: FAU (+115) vs. Kansas State (-135)
Total: 144.5 points
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