Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s prediction: Play the underdog Gaels in WCC title game

The theme for Tuesday night’s West Coast Conference Tournament championship game: It’s déjà vu all over again.

For the second consecutive year, fourth time in the last five years and 11th time since 2009, Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s will duke it out in Las Vegas for conference bragging rights and the league’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

The latter part, of course, is irrelevant — both schools will receive high seeds when the NCAA Tournament field is announced Sunday evening. The first part? It means everything, as Gonzaga-Saint Mary’s has become an intense — and underrated — rivalry.

When Tuesday’s title tilt tips off, the top-seeded Gaels will be looking to capture the WCC Tournament crown for the first time since taking down Gonzaga in 2019. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs will be gunning for their fourth consecutive tournament championship and 20th in the last 25 years.

No. 9 Gonzaga opened as a slim 3.5-point favorite, but early money on 16th-ranked Saint Mary’s pushed that number down a full point.

Our Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s prediction? It’s in lockstep with that market move.

Odds updated as of 2 p.m. ET on March 7.

As regular season co-champions, the Bulldogs (27-5, 13-18 ATS) and Gaels (26-6, 17-12-2 ATS) received the rare triple-bye into Monday night’s WCC Tournament semifinals. Both teams took care of business, although both blew big leads. After Saint Mary’s thwarted a late rally in a 76-69 victory over BYU, Gonzaga extended late and took out San Francisco 84-73.

The Zags have now won nine in a row since a heartbreaking 78-70 overtime loss at Saint Mary’s on Feb. 4 — a game Gonzaga led nearly wire to wire in regulation. One of the wins during the nine-game hot streak: a 77-68 payback victory over the Gaels on Feb. 25.

» READ MORE: Pac-12 Tournament predictions: Arizona is a solid bet to defend its title

Except for a brief 7-7 tie, the Bulldogs also led the entire way in the rematch while improving to 24-6 in their last 30 clashes with Saint Mary’s.

So why fade Gonzaga on Tuesday night — especially when it handled the Gaels for roughly 80 of 85 minutes this season? And when the Bulldogs are 9-3 against Saint Mary’s in WCC Tournament title games?

Because the Gaels displayed a lot of fortitude in battling back in both matchups against Gonzaga this season. Because this rubber match is on a neutral floor. Because advanced metrics reveal Saint Mary’s as the better team. And because this one has all the makings of a last-team-with-the-ball-wins thriller.

Let’s flesh out the latter two points.

Saint Mary’s is ranked No. 7 by KenPom on the strength of the nation’s seventh-best defensive efficiency rating. The Gaels are No. 8 in the NCAA’s NET rankings.

The Bulldogs’ corresponding rankings: No. 10 in KenPom and No. 9 in NCAA NET.

Obviously, not a huge gap between the two rivals. Which makes the 2.5 points Saint Mary’s is getting all the more valuable, as we expect this third battle to be tight from start to finish.

» READ MORE: There's a live underdog to back in this week's SEC basketball tournament in Nashville

Also, let’s not forget that Saint Mary’s was a 3-point home favorite against the Zags on Feb. 4. The Gaels also were just a 6-point underdog when they visited Gonzaga 10 days ago.

Finally, Saint Mary’s is in serious revenge mode. The Gaels have been dealing with a bitter taste since falling 82-69 to Gonzaga in last year’s conference tournament championship game in Las Vegas.

That Bulldogs squad was loaded and ended up with a No. 1 overall seed. Saint Mary’s was the No. 19 overall seed.

This year? Gonzaga has taken a couple of steps back, while the Gaels are on the ascent.

So we’re grabbing the point spread value with Saint Mary’s — although we expect the Gaels to pull off the outright upset in a low-scoring contest.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.