Kansas vs. Baylor prediction: Bet on the Jayhawks to score outright upset

Kansas and Baylor spent the past three seasons duking it out for Big 12 supremacy, with the two programs winning or sharing a trio of regular-season conference titles.

The Jayhawks and Bears may very well reach the top of the Big 12 mountain again in 2022-23. With February looming, though, both squads find themselves staring up at first-place Kansas State entering their showdown Monday night at Baylor.

Both squads also come into Monday’s marquee college basketball matchup going in opposite directions.

Baylor has won four straight games after starting Big 12 play 0-3, while Kansas has followed a 10-game winning streak with consecutive upset losses.

The college basketball betting market sees both streaks continuing Monday, as the Bears opened and remain a slight home favorite. However, our Kansas vs. Baylor prediction sides with the more desperate and — we believe — more talented team.

Odds updated as of 11:45 a.m. ET on Jan. 23.

A week ago at this time, we recommended fading Kansas as a 1.5-point road chalk at Kansas State. That wager hit, but just barely, as the Jayhawks rallied from an early deficit only to fall 83-82 in overtime.

Kansas followed that heartbreaker with a complete (and rare) clunker at home against TCU on Saturday. The reigning champs fell behind 37-15 out of the gate and never threatened, with the Horned Frogs cruising to an 83-60 victory as a 7.5-point underdog.

So why buy Jayhawks stock some 48 hours later? Especially when they have to hit the road again and face a talented and surging Baylor squad?

Well, for starters, betting value. Had this game been played exactly a week ago, Kansas (16-3, 7-12 ATS) would’ve been favored, just as it was at K-State.

Also, Saturday’s dreadful showing against TCU isn’t at all concerning. The Jayhawks were in a difficult spot coming off a draining and disappointing last-second overtime loss to their instate rival.

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Besides, when you lose by 23 points at home, it’s a complete throwaway game. We don’t have any doubt that coach Bill Self will have his team refocused, prepared and motivated for Baylor (14-5, 9-9-1 ATS).

Mostly, though, our Kansas vs. Baylor prediction is about the matchup. While both teams are similar offensively, the Jayhawks have the superior defense.

Even with the TCU debacle, Kansas still allows fewer points per game than Baylor (67.1 vs. 69.3) and holds opponents to a lower field-goal percentage overall (40.8 vs. 43.7) and from 3-point land (32.3 vs. 33.2).

It’s a big reason why Kansas is still ninth in the respected KenPom ratings, while Baylor is 14th.

And while both teams have overtime losses to Kansas State on their ledger, the Bears’ loss was at home (97-95).

Like the Jayhawks, Baylor also fell to TCU at home but by the narrowest of margins (88-87). However, while Kansas outlasted a very good Iowa State team at home on Jan. 14 (62-60), the Bears got walloped 77-62 at Iowa State two weeks earlier to start Big 12 play.

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Granted, the Bears have been delivering for bettors lately (3-0-1 ATS last four), while Kansas has failed to cash in four straight. But that fact is baked into Monday’s point spread and moneyline — and adds to our contention that there’s betting value on the Jayhawks.

Plus, Kansas is in the rare underdog roll Monday. Think Self might use that to further motivate his troops? We do.

While on the motivation topic: Kansas leading scorer and rebounder Jalen Wilson (21.8 points, 8.8 rebounds per game) surely recalls his trip to Baylor some 11 months ago.

That day, Wilson made just 2 of 10 shots, missed all five of his 3-point tries and finished with just seven points (and three rebounds) in an 80-70 loss. That performance (and outcome) should fuel Wilson, who was the only Jayhawk who showed up against TCU on Saturday, scoring a game-high 30 points.

We expect Wilson to show up again in Waco, put his team on his back and prevent Kansas from suffering its first three-game losing skid in more than two years.

Play the Jayhawks on the moneyline at BetMGM.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.