March Madness 2023 predictions: Take the points with No. 13 Furman vs. No. 4 Virginia

A healthy percentage of those who filled out March Madness brackets likely paused for a few beats when they got to the Furman vs. Virginia matchup in the South Region.

While many probably know little to nothing about Furman, they know plenty about Virginia’s recent feast-or-famine NCAA Tournament performances.

The results: A historic first-round loss to UMBC in 2018 as a No. 1 seed (the first and still only time a No. 16 seed has toppled a No. 1); a run to the 2019 national championship as a No. 1 seed; and a 2021 first-round loss as a No. 4 seed to No. 13 Ohio.

So what happens this time around for the Cavaliers, who once again carry a No. 4 seed into March Madness?

We’re not willing to predict yet another one-and-done for Virginia. But we also have no desire to lay points with a team that struggles to score against an opponent that routinely puts round ball into rounder hole.

Odds updated as of 11:10 a.m. ET on March 15.

Looking for a stone-cold NCAA Tournament lock? Bet the Over on the number of times the phrase “contrasting styles” is uttered throughout the broadcast of this first-round matchup in Orlando.

Because at one end of the court will be the defensive-minded Virginia, which loves to bleed the clock when it has the ball and harrass opponents when it doesn’t. At the other end will be the up-tempo Paladins, who would love nothing more than to see the shot clock reduced to 10 seconds.

The raw data:

Contrasting styles indeed.

What has us leaning in Furman’s direction? For starters, the Paladins have won six in a row and 14 of 15, and they arrive in Orlando rested, having not played since winning the Southern Conference Tournament on March 6.

Often, such a long layoff works against a team that relies heavily on offense. But we don’t expect Furman to have any issues with rust. After all, the Paladins shoot 48.3% from the field — tied for 16th best in the country. So even if there’s a slight dip from that number, they should be fine.

» READ MORE: Take a shot on fourth-seeded UConn to emerge from tough West region

Also, Furman has four players who averaged double-digit points in the regular season, ranging from 11.1 to 17.9 per game. The top two scorers — guard Mike Bothwell and forward Jalen Slawson — rip the nets at respective clips of 52.5% and 55.4%.

Granted, neither Bothwell nor Slawson (nor any of their teammates) have run up against a defense like Virginia’s. That said, it’s unlikely that shooters who are that efficient will start firing bricks because they haven’t played in 10 days.

So the Paladins’ time off isn’t a concern. But here’s what is: Virginia’s ability to take advantage of a suspect Furman defense that can be susceptible in transition after missed shots.

See, the Cavaliers have cracked 70 points just twice in 13 games since the end of January. One of those was a 76-56 win over Clemson in the ACC Tournament semifinals — 24 hours after Clemson went up and down the court in an 80-54 rout of North Carolina State.

The other was a regular season-ending 75-60 home win over Louisville (the ACC’s worst team in the standings and second worst in scoring defense).

» READ MORE: Bet on Duke to emerge from a crowded East region and get back to the Final Four

Another way to look at Virginia’s offensive struggles: Since tallying 70 or more points in six straight wins to begin the season — posting an average of 76.7 points per contest — Virginia has topped 70 just seven times in 26 games.

If the Cavs can’t get to 70 on Thursday afternoon, they’re not covering this point spread. Because Furman, which ranks 33rd in adjusted offensive efficiency by KenPom, is getting at least 65.

Needless to say, we don’t see Virginia hitting that 70 mark. What we do see is the Cavs feeling the pressure late in a close game — and at the very least failing to cover the spread for the eighth time in their last 10 games this year and ninth time in their last 12 NCAA Tournament contests.

If not losing outright … again.

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