March Madness 2023 predictions: Bet on No. 10 Penn State to keep it close vs. No. 2 Texas

Penn State ended a 22-year March Madness drought with a dominating victory in Thursday’s first round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

The Nittany Lions’ reward for that historic feat? A date with red-hot Texas, whose current five-game winning streak features four double-digit victories — including a 20-point blowout of defending national champion Kansas in last week’s Big 12 Tournament title game.

Combined, No. 10 seed Penn State (5-0 ATS run) and No. 2 seed Texas (6-0 ATS) have covered the spread in 11 straight contests.

Alas, only one will get the cash in Saturday’s second-round Midwest Region clash in Des Moines, Iowa.

Our money? It’s on the upstart underdog.

Odds updated as of 10:45 a.m. ET on March 17.

We opened the NCAA Tournament with a clean 3-0 sweep Thursday. One of those winners? Penn State, which cruised to a 76-59 upset of No. 7 seed Texas A&M as a 2.5-point underdog for its first March Madness victory since 2001.

It wasn’t the first time the Nittany Lions delivered for us, as we successfully backed them in their first two Big Ten Tournament games (upsets of Illinois and Northwestern).

Penn State’s ongoing five-game spread-covering streak (4-1 SU) has all come in the underdog role. In fact, the Nittany Lions (23-12, 21-13-1 ATS) have cashed in nine straight games when catching points. That includes seven outright victories.

Not only that, but since Feb. 5, the underdog is on a 13-0-1 ATS roll in Penn State’s games (including 10 outright upsets). That’s some kind of impressive trend. But it’s not the sole reason we’re going back to the Nittany Lions’ well again Saturday.

As noted in our Penn State-Texas A&M betting preview, coach Micah Shrewsberry’s squad is loaded with two key ingredients required for success in March: talent and experience. Both were on full display in the Nittany Lions’ run to the Big Ten Tournament championship game, and again in Thursday’s first-round thumping of Texas A&M.

Jalen Pickett, Seth Lundy and Andrew Funk — all seniors and Penn State’s leading scorers in the regular season — combined for 56 points, 14 rebounds and, perhaps most importantly, zero turnovers. Funk in particular had the game of his life, going 8-for-10 from 3-point range and 3-for-3 from the free-throw line.

As a team, the Nittany Lions showed once again why they’re one of the top 3-point shooting squads in the country, going 13-for-22 (59%) from beyond the arc. The defense also showed up, holding the Aggies to 34% shooting overall and 29% from 3-point range (10-for-34).

Throw in a 14-5 assist-to-turnover ratio and it was a near-flawless performance against a quality Texas A&M outfit — one that finished second in the SEC and ended the regular season with a victory over Alabama, the No. 1 overall seed in the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

Again, though, Thursday’s upset wasn’t all that surprising, as Penn State is 9-2 SU and 8-2-1 ATS since Valentine’s Day. The only missteps on the court came against Rutgers (home) and Purdue (Big Ten Tournament title game) by a total of five points.

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Will the Nittany Lions have a tougher go of it Saturday against another Lone Star State opponent? There isn’t much doubt about that.

Texas (27-8, 18-17 ATS) had little trouble with No. 15 seed Colgate on Thursday, rolling 81-61 as a 13-point favorite. The team’s five-game winning streak is the longest since a pair of six-game runs that were part of a 12-1 start to the season.

The Longhorns are deep, with four players who score in double digits and eight players who averaged more than 17 minutes per game in the regular season. But their front court isn’t all that imposing — 6-foot-9 forward Dylan Disu is the only starter (and one of just three regulars) who stands taller than 6-foot-6.

Why is that important? Because the Achilles’ heel for Penn State this season has been size. Among those who play regularly, Lundy is the biggest tree, and he’s only 6-foot-6.

So the Nittany Lions won’t encounter a major size disadvantage Saturday. However, one thing that could be a problem: Texas has been outstanding defending the 3-ball lately, holding its last five opponents to 26.6% shooting from deep.

So, no, this isn’t going to be an easy day at the office for Penn State, which is seeking just its second Sweet 16 appearance since 1955 (and first since 2001). And we’re not predicting yet another upset. But we’ve been sitting in first class on the Nittany Lions’ bandwagon for some time now, so we’re not about to bail now.

Grab the points at Caesars Sportsbook and look for the underdog to improve to 14-0-1 ATS in Penn State’s last 15 games.

Point spread: Penn State (+5.5) vs. Texas (-5.5)

Moneyline: Penn State (+205) vs. Texas (-250)

Total: 140 points

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