SEC run made Alabama the clear team to beat in the NCAA Tournament’s South region
Alabama is the unquestioned team to beat — and right now, the Crimson Tide look unbeatable
After an uneven end to the regular season, Alabama traveled to Nashville for the SEC Tournament and made an emphatic statement.
It read something like this: “We’re not just a football school anymore — and the road to the 2022-23 NCAA Tournament championship runs through us.”
The March Madness selection committee sure took notice, making the Crimson Tide the No. 1 overall seed after they blitzed through the SEC tourney.
However, oddsmakers continue to have Alabama as the second choice to win it all, behind Houston. So if the Crimson Tide needed a little extra motivation as they begin their quest to win the South Region and reach their first-ever Final Four, well … there it is.
Here’s a look at odds to win the South Region and how we’re attacking it from a wagering perspective.
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook updated as of 3 a.m. ET on March 14.
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March Madness 2023: South Region Odds
No. 1 Seed: Alabama (+160)
A 29-5 overall record. An elite scorer in freshman Brandon Miller who is oozing with NBA potential. A top-10 scoring offense to go with a defense that ranks third in the nation in both overall field-goal and 3-point defense.
Oh, and a recent run to the SEC Tournament championship courtesy of three blowout wins by a combined 51 points.
No wonder Alabama earned not only its first No. 1 seed in program history, but also the top overall seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament.
And no wonder a whole lot of folks filling out March Madness brackets have Alabama going a long way — if not all the way.
» READ MORE: Bet on Duke to emerge from a crowded East region and get back to the Final Four
Sleeper: No. 9 West Virginia (+2000)
As we detail below, West Virginia has an intriguing opening-round matchup against Maryland. Win that, and the Mountaineers’ reward is a second-round date with top-seed Alabama.
Not exactly enviable.
However, there’s one thing about coach Bob Huggins’ team that you can take to the bank: They won’t be scared when they take the court — certainly not after surviving the gauntlet that was the 2022-23 Big 12 season.
West Virginia may have finished 7-11 in the Big 12 (good for eighth in the 10-team league). And it may have gotten embarrassed 78-61 by defending national champion Kansas in the conference tournament quarterfinals.
But there’s a reason KenPom has Huggy Bear’s squad rated as the Big 12′s fourth best team (and No. 17 overall): The Mountaineers have talent.
It includes four players — two guards, two forwards — who average more than 10 points per game while also bringing a ton of experience to the court (two fifth-year seniors, a fourth-year senior and a junior).
Does West Virginia have flaws? No doubt, especially defensively. But this team has the ability and coach to put a scare into any team — including Alabama.
» READ MORE: Even with Sasser injury, count on Houston to reach the Final Four out of the Midwest region
Team to Avoid: No. 3 Baylor (+600)
We strongly considered going with No. 6 seed Creighton here. Instead, we opted for Baylor — but the reasoning is the same for both squads.
Namely, you just don’t know which team is going to show up from game to game.
With regard to Baylor, is it the team that went 10-1 from Jan. 11-Feb. 13, with impressive wins over West Virginia (twice), Kansas, TCU and even SEC-member Arkansas? Or is it the team that started Big 12 play 0-3 and ended the season 2-4, with three of those seven losses to Iowa State by a combined 36 points?
Sure, the Bears have Final Four talent (and thus Final Four potential). But the 2019 national champs aren’t trustable right now — definitely not at single-digit odds.
» READ MORE: Will Alabama cut down the nets in Houston? See our predictions for March Madness
Best First-Round Matchup: No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 West Virginia (-2)
Fascinating contrast in styles here, with one team that scores but doesn’t play much defense (West Virginia) slightly favored over a team that plays defense but struggles to score (Maryland).
Also, one team is led by a Hall of Famer who is in his 38th year as a head coach (Huggins), while the other is led by a soon-to-be 48-year-old coach in his first season with the school (Maryland’s Kevin Willard).
Then there are the similarities: Both teams are strong at the free-throw line (Mountaineers 74.1%, Terps 73.9%); both are below-average in the rebounding department; and both are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
To borrow from the parlance of Huggins’ generation: This one oughta be a dandy.
First-Round Upset: No. 13 Furman (+185) over No. 4 Virginia
We offered suggestions for an upset in each region, and this was our selection for the South.
It’s another stylistic clash, as Virginia prefers to play at a methodic pace while relying on its 11th-ranked scoring defense, will the Paladins prefer to get out and run with a unit that ranks 11th in scoring offense.
Traditionally, defense wins these kinds of battles. But the Cavaliers almost certainly will need to score in the mid- to upper 60s to hold off Furman, and we’re not confident they can do that.
And, obviously, Virginia is no stranger to early March Madness exits (second round in 2017 as a No. 5 seed; first round in 2018 as a No. 1 seed; first round in 2021 as a No. 4 seed).
South Region Winner: Alabama (+160)
It’s difficult to recommend betting a favorite at this short of a price to win a regional. But we did it with Houston in the Midwest, and we’re doing it with Alabama in the South.
The reasoning is the same in both cases: We just don’t see a worthy challenger in the field.
We wouldn’t have said this several weeks ago when the Crimson Tide were scuffling as controversy (and national media scrutiny) hovered over star player Miller and the program.
During a six-game stretch that concluded the regular season, Alabama lost two road games to Tennessee and Texas A&M; thumped Georgia at home; and beat South Carolina, Arkansas and Auburn by a combined 10 points (going to overtime twice).
But just when it looked like the Crimson Tide were teetering, they went to Nashville and got right in a big way. Now they appear to be a group on a mission, one operating with a collective us-against-the-world mentality.
That’s not a team to step in front of in March — especially one as balanced and loaded as Alabama.
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