Who’s the right pick when Michigan State and USC meet Friday?

By all accounts, Michigan State has had an average season. The Spartans started 5-4, finished 7-8 and their signature win came in double overtime against Kentucky on a neutral court way back on Nov. 15.

Michigan State’s best performance since then? Arguably, it occurred in a loss (64-63 to then-No. 3 Purdue as a 4-point home underdog on Jan. 16).

Still, the Spartans were never in danger of seeing their streak of 24 consecutive March Madness appearances come to an end. That was clear when the NCAA Tournament selection committee gave Michigan State a No. 7 seed.

We don’t exactly agree that this year’s Spartans are one of the 28 best teams in the country (as their seeding suggests). However, come Friday afternoon in Columbus, Ohio, they don’t have to be one of the nation’s 28 best teams — they just have to be better than No. 10 seed USC in their first-round East Region matchup.

And we believe Michigan State will be better — so long as the players remembered to pack their shooting stroke.

Odds updated as of 4 p.m. ET on March 15.

Adopting a “win by the 3, die by the 3″ mentality isn’t exactly the best way to approach the NCAA Tournament. But it’s a mentality that has shaped Michigan State’s 2022-23 season, and that’s not about to change now.

In fact, there’s not much doubt that the program’s incredible March Madness streak is alive because of their production from the 3-point line. The Spartans (19-12, 15-16 ATS) have made 39.5% of their long-range attempts — tied for third best among all Division I teams.

It’s not that Michigan State lets it rip from downtown from the opening tip to the final buzzer — its 18.9 attempts per game from beyond the arc are well below the Division I average. But the Spartans’ 7.5 makes are slightly above average.

» READ MORE: March Madness 2023 predictions: Bet on No. 5 Miami to take care of business vs. No. 12 Drake

How well does USC defend the 3-point shot? Not terrible, but not great — the Trojans’ 33.4% 3-point rate on defense is a tick above average. But the 7.5 triples they allow per contest is a bit below average (and right on par with Michigan State’s per-game makes).

The bigger issue for USC comes when you flip the 3-point conversation around. The Trojans (22-10, 17-15 ATS) shoot just 34.5% from distance (160th nationally), while Michigan State holds opponents to 31.5% shooting from deep (54th nationally).

Another important area that favors the Spartans, especially in what should be a tightly contested game: free-throw shooting. Michigan State ranks 32nd in the nation from the charity stripe (76.2%). USC is 75th (74.4%).

Now, the Trojans do have a terrific veteran backcourt with fifth-year senior Drew Peterson and fourth-year senior Boogie Ellis. But that’s essentially what USC is — a two-man show. Ellis (18.1 points per game) and Peterson (14.1) are the only Trojans who score in double figures. The duo also ranks 1-2 on the team in assists, and the 6-foot-9 Peterson leads the team in rebounding.

Michigan State, on the other hand, goes three players deep in the scoring department. Guards Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard, along with forward Joey Hauser, average between 12.6 and 14.8 points per contest.

All three shoot better than 80% from the free-throw line, and Walker (46% overall, 42.9% from 3-point range) and Hauser (48.7%, 45.9%) are two of the team’s most efficient shooters from the field.

Bringing it back to the 3-point topic: Four of the Spartans’ five leading scorers shoot 41% or better from deep. The only exception is Hoggard (30.9%), but he sets up those long-range shooters as the point guard (team-high 6.1 assists per game).

Don’t misunderstand: As the point spread indicates, this is a very even matchup. And we’d be surprised if either team coasts to a victory.

But in addition to the aforementioned advantages Michigan State enjoys, the Spartans have a Hall of Famer in Izzo on their sidelines. They also have a logistical edge, playing somewhat close to home in Columbus and in their own time zone. USC will be taking the court at 9:15 a.m. body clock-wise.

Add it all up and we like Michigan State to pull out a close one — so close that we don’t recommend messing around with the point spread. Play Sparty on the moneyline at Caesars Sportsbook.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.