Miami vs. Texas predictions: Defense will lead Longhorns to Elite Eight win

We’ve been on the Miami Hurricanes’ bandwagon throughout their surprising run to a second consecutive NCAA Tournament Elite Eight.

We backed the No. 5 seed Hurricanes in their opening-round Midwest Region matchup against No. 12 Drake, their Round of 32 clash against No. 4 Indiana and their Sweet 16 tussle with top-seed Houston.

Miami won and cashed in all three, the last two being double-digit upset victories over higher seeds.

So if you think we’re abandoning the Canes now that they’re one step away from their first Final Four, you’re … right. You’re absolutely right.

Because Miami’s Elite Eight opponent on Sunday in Kansas City is operating like a runaway freight train right now.

Odds updated as of 6:30 p.m. ET on March 25.

As good as Miami has been in the NCAA Tournament — and the Canes have been tremendous — Texas has been even better. And it’s not like the Longhorns’ incredible play started when March Madness tipped off.

Since consecutive road losses at Baylor and TCU — the latter a scant 2-point setback on March 1 — Texas has won seven in a row. Included are five double-digit blowouts, the most recent being Friday’s 83-71 thrashing of No. 3 seed Xavier in the Sweet 16.

That 12-point margin? It hardly details the extent of the Longhorns’ dominance of the Musketeers. They scored the first four points of the game, never trailed, had a 17-point lead at halftime and held the nation’s 10th highest-scoring team to 55 points through the first 35 minutes of action.

Had Xavier not nailed a meaningless 3-pointer with 6 seconds to play, it would’ve been held under 70 points for just the seventh time this season.

At the same time, had Texas not let off the gas defensively in the final five minutes, it would’ve held its seventh straight opponent to 66 points or less.

Even with Xavier’s garbage-time points — along with a late-game 4-point play that Penn State executed in a 71-66 loss to the Longhorns in the Round of 32 — Texas still is yielding just 60 points per game during its winning streak.

The actual point totals (and opponents): 59 (Kansas), 47 (Oklahoma State), 60 (TCU), 56 (Kansas again), 61 (Colgate), 66 (Penn State), 71 (Xavier).

In our Xavier vs. Texas betting preview, we wondered aloud if the Longhorns were simply in the midst of a hot defensive run or if they were legitimately locked in. Friday’s result affirmed it’s definitely the latter — which we learned the hard way in backing the Musketeers in the Sweet 16.

And we have a strong feeling Miami is about to learn the hard way, too.

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Yes, prior to the Longhorns putting it on Xaver, the Hurricanes took the court in Kansas City for their Sweet 16 game and picked apart Houston, which ranked No. 2 nationally in scoring, field-goal and 3-point defense.

Miami tallied 42 first-half points, 47 second-half points, shot 52% overall, 44% from 3-point range and embarrassed the Midwest’s No. 1 seed 89-75 as a 7.5-point underdog.

Since trailing first-round opponent Drake 55-47 with 5 minutes to play, Miami has put up 190 points in roughly 85 minutes of action.

Scintillating, to say the least. But the Canes haven’t run up against an opponent with a defense as aggressive, tenacious and opportunistic as Texas.

That includes Houston, whose defense had been showing signs of cracking. The Cougars gave up 75 points to Memphis in the American Athletic Conference Tournament title game and 41 in the first half of a second-round March Madness game against Auburn.

Texas hasn’t allowed more than 33 first-half points since the March 1 loss at TCU and has allowed more than 35 second-half points just once during its winning streak (Penn State had 43).

But it’s not just all about defense with the Longhorns. Their offense has reached 70 points in four straight games; 14 of 18 going back to Jan. 24; and 30 of 37 on the season. And five different Texas players scored in double digits against Xavier.

What about the fact that Miami is now 8-1 ATS as an underdog this year with six outright upsets? Can’t say anything negative about that — in fact, it’s one reason why we backed the Canes against both Indiana and Houston.

But there’s a counter to that trend: Texas, which covered as a 3.5-point underdog in its most recent defeat at TCU, is on an 7-0-1 ATS run (5-0-1 ATS as a favorite).

Look, it’s not easy to jump ship on the Hurricanes after they delivered for us three straight times in this tournament. But Texas is the deeper, more complete and hotter team.

The Longhorns will show as much on Sunday and end a 15-year Final Four drought with a 7-point-plus win.

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