Mississippi State vs. Pitt predictions: Bet on the Bulldogs to advance past Dayton

It’s difficult to understand how both Mississippi State and Pitt earned the final two at-large NCAA Tournament bids.

Although both had 20-win seasons, neither finished strong — Pitt dropped three of its last four and four of its last seven games, while Mississippi State closed 4-4. Both also got bounced from their conference tournaments in embarrassing fashion, losing by a combined 52 points.

Finally, both had far worse KenPom ratings — Mississippi State No. 49, Pitt No. 77 — than NCAA Tournament snubs Rutgers (No. 35), Oklahoma State (No. 38) and Oregon (No. 41).

Yet the Bulldogs and Panthers will be on the court Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio, for a First Four matchup.

Which side will advance to play No. 6 seed Iowa State in a first-round game Thursday? Our money is on the team from the superior conference with the better season-long résumé.

Odds updated as of 5:30 p.m. ET on March 13.

The Bulldogs’ 72-49 loss to Alabama in the second round of the SEC Tournament doesn’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence.

But we’re willing to chalk it up to a bad day at the office — especially from a shooting perspective, as Mississippi State made just 18 of 58 field goal attempts. That includes a 1-for-13 effort from 3-point range, which is dreadful even against an opponent that fields the third-best 3-point defense in the nation.

But the Bulldogs (21-12, 16-17 ATS) played decent defensively, holding Alabama to 40% shooting and winning the rebounding battle (37-36). That wasn’t too much of a surprise, of course, as Mississippi State ranks 11th in the nation in field-goal defense (39.3%) and eighth in scoring defense (60.4 points per game allowed).

That defense needs to show up Tuesday in Dayton, because Pitt averaged 82.7 points over its final eight regular-season games plus an 89-81 comeback win over Georgia Tech in the second round of last week’s ACC Tournament.

» READ MORE: Five best strategies and tips to help you win your NCAA Tournament pool

The scoring potential is there for the Panthers (22-11, 22-10-1 ATS). However, in their last two games against top-notch defensive teams, Pitt managed just 65 points (against North Carolina) and 69 (against Duke). And the latter is misleading, because Duke let off the defensive gas as it ran away with a 30-point victory in an ACC Tournament quarterfinal matchup. That 96-69 drubbing followed losses at Notre Dame (88-81) and Miami (78-76) to cap the regular season.

Spot the pattern there? Pitt’s defense has been nonexistent of late, giving up an average of 85.5 points in the last four games.

Points allowed in the Panthers’ last six games away from home (four road, two neutral sites): 75, 79, 88, 78, 81, 96.

That’s a bad sign, even against an opponent that’s as offensively challenged as Mississippi State.

Then again, prior to the Alabama fiasco, the Bulldogs had scored at least 68 points in seven of eight contests (besting their season average of 66.4 points per game). That includes a 68-62 win over Texas A&M and a 70-64 win over Arkansas (both NCAA Tournament teams).

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Also worth noting: Mississippi State took Alabama to the wire in Tuscaloosa back in January, losing 66-63 as an 11.5-point underdog. And while the Bulldogs have split their last eight overall, the three defeats prior to the SEC Tournament were by a total of 10 points.

In fact, their last five losses before getting trounced by the Crimson Tide were by a combined 15 points. That includes two of just three losses all season to non-Tournament teams: Vanderbilt (77-72 on the road) and Florida (61-59). The other? 58-50 at Georgia in mid-January.

As for the aforementioned point about Mississippi State hailing from the better conference, it’s not an opinion. Seven other SEC teams made the NCAA Tournament, six of which have a top-30 KenPom rating.

On the other hand, Pitt is one of just five ACC teams in the tournament. Only one of those squads — No. 21 Duke — has a KenPom rating higher than 34th.

So we’re betting on the Bulldogs to get the job done in this one — and comfortably so.

Point spread: Mississippi State (-1.5) vs. Pitt (+1.5)

Moneyline: Mississippi State (-125) vs. Pitt (+105)

Total: 131.5 points

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