Penn State vs. Purdue prediction: Lay big points with No. 1 Boilermakers

Less than a month ago, Penn State faced No. 1 Purdue in front of a sold out, Penn State-heavy crowd at The Palestra in Philadelphia.

It didn’t end well for the Nittany Lions.

On Wednesday, Penn State and Purdue will complete their season series, and once again the Boilermakers will come into the game ranked No. 1. The big difference from the first meeting? This one is taking place in Purdue’s gym.

Needless to say, oddsmakers don’t expect Round 2 to go any better for the Nittany Lions.

It’s difficult to disagree, especially given how Purdue center and national Player of the Year frontrunner Zach Edey dominated Penn State the first time around — and the 7-foot-4 Edey has only gotten better since.

Odds updated as of 11 a.m. ET on Feb. 1.

The case for Penn State on Wednesday: It is coming off its most impressive victory of the season, and it gave Purdue a good fight for 30 minutes the first time around.

Regarding the former, the Nittany Lions manhandled Michigan 83-61 as a 4-point home favorite Saturday, building a 32-point lead at one point in the second half.

The blowout came 24 days after Penn State went to Michigan and got spanked 79-69 as a four-point underdog. In that contest, 7-foot-1 Wolverines center Hunter Dickinson had 17 points and six rebounds. But in Saturday’s rematch, the Nittany Lions held Dickinson to just six points and two rebounds.

An admirable defensive effort, to be sure. But as good as Dickinson is — and he’s pretty good — he’s not in Edey’s class. And Penn State’s players are well aware of that.

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Back on Jan. 8 at The Palestra, Edey went 14-for-21 from the field, tallied game highs of 30 points and 13 rebounds, and chipped in three assists and three blocks.

Edey did much of his damage in the second half, helping the Boilermakers turn a 37-31 halftime deficit into a 76-63 blowout victory as a 5-point neutral-site favorite.

It was the eighth of what would be 10 consecutive double-doubles for Edey. He’s since tacked on two more, giving him 17 on the season.

His best performance? The most recent one.

In Saturday’s 77-61 thrashing of Michigan State as an 8-point home favorite. Edey poured in a career-high 38 points (15-for-24 shooting), and his 13 rebounds were more than double every other player who set foot on the court.

Barring an injury or massive, unforeseen downturn in production over the next six weeks, Edey is going to be named National Player of the Year. The junior from Toronto has been that good in averaging 22.1 points and 13 rebounds.

So as good as Penn State was defensively against Dickinson on Saturday, it’s tough to see the Lions keeping Edey in check Wednesday. And if they can’t, they’re going to have a hard time remaining in shouting distance of Purdue.

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Yes, the Boilermakers’ lone loss this season was at home to Rutgers (65-64 on Jan. 2). And Maryland also took Purdue to the limit in West Lafayette on Jan. 22 (58-55 loss).

But Penn State — which has yet to play Maryland — got thumped 65-45 at Rutgers (its last road game). It was the Nittany Lions’ third straight Big Ten road loss, and there was a common theme in each: They struggled to score, averaging 58 points.

What is Purdue’s strength (outside of Edey’s offensive prowess)? Team defense. With their 7-foot-4 center protecting the rim, the Boilermakers give up just 60.3 points per game (10th best in the nation).

Is there reason to be concerned about laying this many points? Actually, there is. As noted, Purdue struggled with Penn State for 20 minutes in Philly last month.

Also, the Boilermakers have put together dominating performances in consecutive Big Ten games just once: After rallying for the 13-point win over the Nittany Lions, they blasted Nebraska 73-55 as a 15.5-point home chalk.

So this is by no means a slam-dunk winner. Still, if Edey brings his A-game again, it’s highly unlikely Penn State will be able stop him.

It’s also highly unlikely that the Lions will be able to put up 65 points, which is probably what they will need to do to cover this number at Caesars Sportsbook.

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