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Purdue vs. Michigan prediction: Bet the Under in clash of Big Ten rivals

Boilermakers will continue season-long trend of playing low-scoring, defensive games

Purdue point guard Braden Smith dribbles the ball upcourt during a game against Nebraska earlier this month. Smith and the Boilermakers are ranked No. 1 in the nation heading into Thursday’s Big Ten battle at Michigan. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
Purdue point guard Braden Smith dribbles the ball upcourt during a game against Nebraska earlier this month. Smith and the Boilermakers are ranked No. 1 in the nation heading into Thursday’s Big Ten battle at Michigan. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)Read moreMichael Hickey / Getty Images

The Purdue Boilermakers are 19-1 overall, including 5-0 in true road games. They have a two-game lead in the Big Ten standings. And they’re the Big Ten’s lone representative in the Top 25 — in fact, they’re sitting at No. 1.

So why is Purdue favored by less than two 3-point baskets Thursday night at Michigan, which is just 11-8 overall and 5-3 in conference?

Because the Boilermakers have struggled to win consistently by margin.

They are 8-12 ATS overall, covering just four times in their last 14 contests. All four of those point spread winners came in Big Ten play — but those are offset by five ATS defeats against league foes.

So it’s difficult to trust Purdue to go into a hostile environment and put away the scrappy Wolverines, who are 4-0 at home in Big Ten action and will be pumped to take on the nation’s top-ranked team.

Here’s what we can count on, though: a low-scoring defensive battle. We explain why with our Purdue vs. Michigan prediction.

Odds updated as of 8:45 a.m. ET on Jan. 26.

Purdue vs. Michigan Prediction

  1. Under 136 points (at Caesars Sportsbook)

Purdue vs. Michigan Prediction: Analysis

It’s not often in the modern college basketball era that you’ll see a team that struggles to shoot the basketball rise to the top of the rankings.

Yet that’s what has happened with the Boilermakers, who returned to the No. 1 spot this week after holding that position for four weeks earlier in the season.

At first glance, it’s head-scratching, because Purdue is 143th in the nation in scoring (73.6 points per game), 145th in field-goal shooting (45.3%) and a woeful 259th in 3-point shooting (32.6%).

Ah, but here’s the rub: The Boilermakers ranks 15th — and fifth among Power 5 schools — in offensive efficiency. And that’s because of their stifling defense.

Purdue limits opponents to 59.8 points per game on 41.9% shooting overall and 31.2% from long distance. The Boilermakers’ respective national rankings in those categories: 10th, 27th and 18th.

And now you know why Purdue has stayed Under the total in 14 of 20 games this season. Only three Power 5 schools have been more profitable to the Under.

Most recently, the Under has cashed in four straight Boilermakers games. Final scores in those four: 73-55, 64-63, 61-39, 58-55.

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Going back to a 65-62 overtime victory at Nebraska — a game that stayed low despite the extra session — Purdue is on a 9-2 Under tear. Not one of those nine games ended with more than 131 combined points.

The two “high-scoring” games in that batch were back-to-back road contests at Ohio State and Penn State. Those final scores: 71-69 and 76-63.

In other words, the Boilermakers haven’t played a game featuring more than 140 combined points since Dec. 7 (85-66 home win over Hofstra). In fact, they’ve played only five such games all season.

As for Michigan, its traditional offensive stats are about on par with Purdue’s — the Wolverines shoot the 3-ball a bit better (34.5%), but their overall field-goal percentage (44.7%) is worse.

And when it comes to offensive efficiency, Michigan is ranked 93rd.

The Wolverines are coming off two defensive battles against Maryland (64-58 road loss) and Minnesota (60-56 home win). Prior to that, they scored 85 points against Northwestern and 84 (in overtime) against Iowa.

But that’s been a recurring theme with this Michigan squad: all or nothing. The team has tallied at least 78 points nine times (winning eight) and 62 points or fewer five times (losing four).

That tells us the Wolverines are more than capable of holding their own in a track meet but struggle against strong defensive teams.

Rest assured, Purdue has no intention of letting this game turn into a track meet.

Play the Under at Caesars Sportsbook, and look for the final to fall short of 130 points.

Purdue vs. Michigan Odds: (via Caesars Sportsbook)

  1. Point spread: Purdue (-5) @ Michigan (+5)

  2. Moneyline: Purdue (-235) @ Michigan (+192)

  3. Total: 136 points

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