San Diego State vs. UConn prediction: Will the Huskies cruise to a fifth title Monday?

San Diego State and UConn each needed five NCAA Tournament victories to reach Monday’s national championship game at NRG Stadium in Houston.

And that’s where the similarities between the two teams end.

Because while the fifth-seeded Aztecs survived four close calls — including back-to-back one-point wins in the Elite Eight and Final Four — No. 4 seed UConn has blasted all five March Madness opponents by double digits.

To put the teams’ dichotomous paths to Monday’s title tilt in perspective, consider this: San Diego State has beaten its five NCAA Tournament foes by a combined 38 points. The Huskies’ combined margin of victory in their last two games alone? 41 points.

UConn’s thorough dominance isn’t lost on national championship game oddsmakers, who installed the Huskies as a 7.5-point favorite for Monday’s contest.

It’s not lost on us, either, as we’re not jumping in front of the UConn freight train again.

Odds updated as of 10:30 a.m. ET on April 2.

All credit to San Diego State, which has ticked off several “firsts” over the past 18 days — both as a school and a Mountain West Conference representative.

First-ever trip to the Elite Eight, first trip to the Final Four, first trip to the national championship game. And on Saturday night, the Aztecs became the first team in the 2023 NCAA Tournament to win a game on a buzzer-beater.

Guard Lamont Butler’s pull-up jump shot splashed through the net as the horn sounded, capping a 14-point second-half comeback over No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic and giving SDSU an improbable 72-71 Final Four victory.

That win followed a final-seconds shot that beat Creighton 56-55 in the Elite Eight. Which followed a stunning 71-64 upset of No. 1 overall seed Alabama as a 6.5-point underdog.

So SDSU (32-6, 19-18 ATS) has more than earned its spot in Monday’s national championship game.

Just as UConn has more than earned its standing as a massive favorite in said championship game.

The Huskies (30-8, 26-12 ATS) opened their Final Four game against No. 5 seed Miami on a 9-0 run, kept the pesky Hurricanes at bay the entire way and cruised to a 72-59 victory as a 5.5-point favorite.

UConn took a 37-24 lead into halftime and maintained that double-digit advantage for all but seven seconds of the second half.

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This against a Miami squad that was coming off consecutive upsets over No. 4 seed Indiana, No. 1 Houston and No. 2 Texas. A squad that entered Saturday 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS as an underdog this season. And a squad that had lost by more than seven points just once in 35 games.

Just how impressive were the Huskies on Saturday night? The Hurricanes scored 85, 89 and 88 points against Indiana, Houston and Texas, respectively. They had tallied at least 74 points in 14 of their previous 15. And they scored at least 63 points in every game this year.

Well, UConn held Miami to 59 points. On just 20-for-62 shooting (32%).

But that’s been the Huskies’ mantra throughout March Madness: Flex muscles, crush souls, move on to the next victim.

All five of their tournament victories have been by at least 13 points. They have averaged 79.8 points in those victories (scoring between 70-88 in each contest). And they have allowed just 59.2 points (giving up between 54-65 in each contest).

Of course, UConn easily covered the spread in all five of its tournament victories. Just as it easily covered the spread in six of its final seven regular-season wins. And just as it has easily covered the spread in 15 of 16 non-conference triumphs on the season.

In fact, the Huskies are 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games dating to Jan. 31. All but two of those 14 victories — 64-55 at home against Seton Hall and 73-66 vs. Providence in the Big East Tournament — were double-digit blowouts.

And UConn is 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS in non-conference games. Every single win? By double digits, with the Huskies scoring an average of 83.4 points and giving up an average of 58.7 points.

Of course, it’s not just the stats that are impressive but the players who are responsible for producing them. Led by future NBA lottery pick Jordan Hawkins and chiseled 6-foot-9 forward Adama Sanogo, the Huskies have shown for five-plus months that they’re a perfect combination of size, speed and athleticism.

Throw in some heaping spoonfuls of versatility, aggressiveness and toughness, and you’ve got the makings of an unstoppable beast.

Which is exactly what UConn has been throughout March Madness (and really, for the vast majority of the 2022-23 season). And it’s exactly what the Huskies will be one final time Monday night, when they run San Diego State out of the building by 15-plus points while improving to 5-0 SU and ATS all time in national championship games.

» READ MORE: Final Four odds: UConn solidly favored to win fifth national championship

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