Sweet 16 predictions: Princeton’s magical run will end in blowout loss to Creighton

If you ever wondered why they call it March Madness, look no further than the South Region’s second Sweet 16 matchup Friday in Louisville, Kentucky: No. 15 seed Princeton vs. No. 6 seed Creighton.

For the right to play in the Elite Eight. Which is one step away from the Final Four.

Just what everyone expected, right?

It’s just the fourth time in the modern NCAA Tournament era that a No. 15 seed has made it to the Sweet 16. But it’s now happened in back-to-back tournaments.

Last year, another 15-seed from New Jersey — St. Peter’s — advanced to the Sweet 16. And the Peacocks didn’t go quietly, upsetting No. 3 seed Purdue as a 13-point underdog to become the first No. 15 seed to reach the Elite Eight.

The Tigers aren’t catching quite as many points Friday against Creighton. But they’re still nearly a double-digit underdog.

Can the Ivy League champs make a game of it — and maybe even pull a St. Peter’s? Our money says … no.

Odds updated as of 9 a.m. ET on March 24.

It’s difficult to understate just how impressive Princeton was last week.

First, the Tigers held No. 2 seed Arizona — which averages a tick under 82 points per game, seventh most in the nation — to 55 points in a 59-55 first-round victory as a 15-point underdog. Then they led No. 7 Missouri almost wire-to-wire in a 78-63 beatdown as a 6.5-point underdog. Mizzou ranks 26th in the nation in scoring at just under 79 points per contest.

Princeton has now won and covered six in a row, including four outright victories as an underdog. What’s more, the Tigers are 23-8 overall, 16-10 ATS and they’ve been beaten by more than seven points just twice all season.

Both lopsided losses were to Yale — 87-65 as a 3-point road underdog on Jan. 28 and 93-83 in overtime as a 2-point home favorite three weeks later. Yet Princeton avenged those defeats in the Ivy League final, upsetting Yale 74-65 at home to punch its March Madness ticket.

So why can’t the Tigers hang with Creighton in Louisville on Friday?

Well, they can. We just don’t see it happening.

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For one thing, the Bluejays (23-12, 18-17 ATS) won’t get caught napping against the Tigers like Arizona. The Wildcats clearly thought a first-round victory over Princeton was a foregone conclusion, and they paid for it. Obviously, that win got Missouri’s attention. But Missouri basically had 24 hours to prepare for the Tigers’ unique style and couldn’t handle it.

Creighton, meanwhile, will have had four full days to game plan for Princeton — and you can be sure coach Doug McDermott’s troops won’t hit the floor overconfident.

Speaking of those troops, they handled their business against two tough Power 5 opponents last weekend. First, the Bluejays emerged from a tough back-and-forth game against No. 11 seed North Carolina State with a 72-63 victory. Then they took all the punches No. 3 seed Baylor could throw at them but still put away the 2021 national champs 85-76.

In the latter contest, Creighton raced out to a 10-point halftime lead and finished shooting 46% from the field (26-for-56), 46% from 3-point land (11-for-24) and 22-for-22 from the free-throw line.

The Bluejays easily covered as a 1.5-point favorite after opening as a 1-point underdog. That point-spread flip is quite interesting, because Baylor was the No. 3 seed and Creighton the No. 6.

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That’s a clear indication that the Bluejays were grossly underseeded by the NCAA Tournament selection committee. Plenty of metrics would concur, starting with analytics guru KenPom, who has Creighton rated No. 12 and Baylor No. 16.

The Bluejays’ KenPom ranking is the eighth-best among the 16 teams remaining in the tournament. To provide some context, 14 of those 16 teams fall within the KenPom top 25, with Michigan State being the lowest at No. 24. Then comes Miami at No. 33. Then comes Princeton all the way down at No. 91 — 26 spots lower than Ivy League rival Yale.

That’s right: There’s a 79-team gap between the Bluejays and Tigers per KenPom.

Now, the counterargument is that KenPom still has Arizona rated 10th, two spots better than Creighton. Again, though, the Wildcats were caught flat-footed and got blindsided. Few would argue that Arizona would beat Princeton on a neutral court 98 times out of 100.

Also important to note: Arizona plays an up-tempo, all-offense, little-defense style. Creighton is a much more well-rounded and balanced team, one comfortable in either a low-scoring or high-scoring game.

The Bluejays also have the personnel to neutralize Princeton’s biggest strength: rebounding. The Tigers, who are 11th nationally in rebounding margin, dominated the boards against Missouri (42-29).

That won’t happen against Creighton, which is well above-average in both rebounding (60th) and rebounding margin (62nd).

In summary, Princeton deserves a ton of kudos for getting to this point. But the Tigers’ Cinderella run is ending Friday — and it’s ending with a double-digit defeat.

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