Sweet 16 predictions: Bank on Alabama to roll over San Diego State

San Diego State reached the Sweet 16 for the third time in school history thanks to a stifling defense that shut down two NCAA Tournament opponents that rank 12th and 16th nationally in scoring.

Those opponents: South Region No. 12 seed College of Charleston and No. 13 seed Furman.

To move on to the Elite Eight for the first time, though, the Aztecs’ defense now must shut down an opponent that ranks fifth in the nation in scoring offense. That opponent: South Region No. 1 seed Alabama. Check that — No. 1 overall seed Alabama.

Can SDSU pull it off? Doubtful.

Can the fifth-seeded Aztecs at least be competitive in Friday’s Sweet 16 contest in Louisville, Kentucky? Not quite as doubtful but still … doubtful.

Odds updated as of 12:30 p.m. ET on March 23.

Alabama was expected to cruise past its first two NCAA Tournament opponents.

Of course, expectations aren’t always met. Just ask Purdue, Kansas, Arizona and Marquette, four top-two seeds that failed to escape the opening weekend of March Madness.

But the Crimson Tide (31-5, 21-15 ATS) did in fact waltz into the Sweet 16 after a pair of runaway wins over No. 16 seed Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and No. 8 Maryland by a combined score of 169-126.

Think that’s impressive? Get this: Superstar freshman Brandon Miller contributed just 19 of those 169 points — all against Maryland.

Also impressive: Since the start of the SEC Tournament, Alabama has posted five straight double-digit wins by an average of 19 points (79-59.8). The Crimson Tide’s only non-cover during this run was last Thursday’s 21-point win over Corpus Christi as a 24.5-point favorite.

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So, yeah, San Diego State is taking a major step up in class after opening the tournament with wins over College of Charleston (63-57) and Furman (75-52). The Aztecs (29-6, 17-17 ATS) also are taking a major step up in class from the Mountain West Conference, which they mostly dominated this season.

All of which explains why Alabama is the second-biggest favorite on the Sweet 16 betting board.

As to why we’re backing that big favorite, it boils down to something pretty basic: SDSU’s defense is tremendous — but the Crimson Tide’s is better. And while the Aztecs are maddeningly inconsistent offensively, Alabama lights up the scoreboard with regularity.

Let’s start with the defensive numbers. SDSU yields just 63.1 points per game, which is 24th best in the country. The Aztecs hold opponents to 41.1% shooting from the field (40th nationally) and a paltry 28.8% from 3-point range.

Alabama’s national rankings in those latter two categories? No. 2 (37.1% overall) and No. 3 (28.1% from 3-point land).

Yes, the Crimson Tide give up 5 more points per game (68.2) than SDSU. But that’s because they score a lot of points — 82.3 per contest, to be precise. Going back to Jan. 31, Alabama has averaged 84.5 points in its last 13 victories, scoring at least 72 in each. Along the way, the Crimson Tide suffered two losses, and its offense went dormant in each (68-59 at Tennessee; 67-61 at Texas A&M).

If it limits the Crimson Tide to 61 points or fewer Friday, SDSU not only will cover the spread but it probably will win outright.

We just don’t see that happening. Because Alabama’s offense is much more dynamic than what the Aztecs faced against Charleston and Furman. It’s also more dynamic than what the Aztecs faced against Arizona and New Mexico.

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We bring up those two schools because they’re the only other top-30 scoring offenses that SDSU went up against this season (Arizona at No. 7; New Mexico at No. 13).

Well, Arizona beat the Aztecs 87-70 at the Maui Invitational, while New Mexico beat the Aztecs 76-67 in New Mexico. SDSU did get revenge on the Lobos in Albuquerque, hitting a buzzer-beater in a 73-71 win. Still, the defense surrendered an average of 78 points in those three contests.

The bigger problem for the Aztecs: Their offense can (and often does) go ice cold. And they rarely shoot their way out of those slumps.

If SDSU doesn’t knock down some early confidence-building shots, this one could get real ugly real quickly. Because as good as the Aztecs’ defense is, it’s not going to contain the bigger, more athletic Crimson Tide for 40 minutes.

In fact, Alabama’s scoring floor is probably 75 points. That means SDSU would have to put up at least 67 to get inside the point spread.

Is that doable for the Aztecs? Yes. But, again, it’s not likely.

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