Sweet 16 predictions: Xavier’s offense will keep it close vs. streaking Texas

Back in 2008, Texas and Xavier were on the same side of the NCAA Tournament bracket. Both advanced to the Elite Eight and were on a collision course for a meeting in the Final Four.

That is, until both suffered identical 19-point losses in their Elite Eight contests — Texas against Memphis; Xavier against UCLA.

Fast-forward 15 years, and the Longhorns haven’t returned to the Elite Eight since, while the Musketeers have done so just once (2017).

Well, one team is about to move a step closer to the Final Four, because the NCAA Tournament matchup that never was in 2008 now is: No. 2 seed Texas and No. 3 Xavier will clash Friday in the Sweet 16 in Kansas City, with the winner advancing to Sunday’s Midwest Region final.

While both teams bring near identical records and similar hot streaks into the T-Mobile Center, the March Madness betting community is giving the nod to the Longhorns.

We concur that Texas should be favored. Yet we’re grabbing the points in what figures to be a competitive, high-scoring affair.

Odds updated as of 3 p.m. ET on March 23.

No need to get overly analytical with this Sweet 16 matchup. Because it’s going to come down to the simplest of college basketball principles.

Namely: Can Xavier’s high-powered offense produce against a Texas defense that has shut down every opponent during an ongoing six-game winning streak? And can the Musketeers’ often leaky D get enough stops?

Obviously, in backing Xavier, we believe the answers are “yes” and “yes”.

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While the Musketeers survived a big-time scare in their opening-round clash with No. 14 seed Kennesaw State — overcoming a 13-point deficit with less than 10 minutes to play — they pulled out the win. Xavier (25-9, 20-15-1 ATS) carried that momentum over to Saturday, when it raced out to a 19-point first-half lead against No. 11 Pitt and cruised to an 84-73 victory.

With that, Sean Miller — now in his second tour of duty at Xavier — has his team on a 7-1 roll dating to Feb. 24. The Musketeers — who rank 10th in the country in scoring (81.2 points per game) — put up 72-plus points in all seven wins, including topping 80 points five times and 90 once.

The one loss during this stretch? It wasn’t pretty: 65-51 to Marquette in the Big East Tournament final. The 51 points were by far Xavier’s lowest output of the season, beating the previous low of 63. It’s one of just six times in 34 games that the Musketeers failed to clear 70 points.

Avoiding No. 7 on Friday against the Longhorns (26-8, 18-17-1 ATS) won’t be easy. Because Texas’ defense has mauled all six opponents during its current winning streak.

The Longhorns beat Kansas 75-59 in their final regular season contest; held Oklahoma State, TCU and Kansas to 47, 60 and 56 points, respectively, en route to the Big 12 Tournament championship; then surrendered 61 points to Colgate and 66 to Penn State in two NCAA Tournament wins.

And Penn State only had 62 points before an and-one 3-pointer and free throw in the waning seconds.

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But looking at the entirety of Texas’ season, one can’t help but ask: Is this just a hot streak? Or did the Longhorns figure something out? Because prior to the regular-season finale against Kansas, Texas had surrendered the following point totals: 75 (at TCU), 81 (at Baylor), 54 (vs. offensively challenged Iowa State), 83 (vs. Oklahoma in OT), and 74 (at Texas Tech).

Additionally, the Longhorns’ defense no-showed in games against Kansas State (116), Kansas (88), Illinois (85), Tennessee (82), Rice (81), Iowa State (78) and TCU (75).

Now guess who’s superior to all those teams in the scoring (and shooting) departments? Yep, Xavier. And with five players who average double-digit points, the Musketeers definitely are capable of keeping this game close.

Now, can Xavier play enough defense? Well, that certainly was the team’s weak link all season. And Texas, with four players who score in double figures, can fill the bucket.

But over its last 13 games, Xavier has surrendered more than 73 points just twice — and it won both games (94-89 at Providence; 89-84 vs. DePaul in the Big East Tournament).

Average points allowed in the other 11 contests: 66.6.

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Texas’ average offensive output in its last nine games: 71.9 — in other words, good, but not great.

Add to all this the fact that Xavier is the superior rebounding team, and we can’t pass up the points here.

Are we calling for an outright upset? No. But because of the Musketeers’ ability to score, such an upset would be less surprising than a runaway Texas win.

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