Xavier vs. UConn prediction: Musketeers offer value as big underdog

Back on New Year’s Eve, UConn took a 14-0 record and No. 2 ranking to Cincinnati for a Big East clash with then 22nd-ranked Xavier.

Seven games and less than four weeks later, the Huskies are 16-5, tied for fifth place in the Big East standings and sitting 19th in the Top 25 rankings — six spots behind Xavier.

Despite that reality, the Huskies will take the court Wednesday night heavily favored to beat the Musketeers.

The same Musketeers who whipped UConn 83-73 as a 3-point home underdog on the final day of 2022. The same Musketeers who would be in the midst of a 13-game winning streak right now if not for a one-point loss at DePaul a week ago.

And the same Musketeers whose four losses this season are by a combined 14 points — none by more than seven.

Pretty sure you can figure out where we’re going with our Xavier vs. UConn prediction.

Odds updated as of 11:20 a.m. ET on Jan. 25.

There are plenty of folks in the college hoops betting market who believe UConn got its groove back with Saturday’s 30-point pummeling of Butler.

We just don’t happen to fall into that camp.

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For one thing, Butler isn’t any good. The Bulldogs are 3-7 in Big East play. Two of their wins were against conference bottom-feeders Georgetown and DePaul. (Georgetown just snapped a school-record 29-game Big East losing streak Tuesday night with a win over … DePaul.)

And Butler’s first six league losses were by margins of 21, 16, 25, 20, 22 and 22 points — and the latter also was to UConn at home.

In other words, we’re going to have to see more from the Huskies before we’re willing to trust them — especially when laying this kind of number against a quality foe like Xavier.

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Going back to the first matchup between these schools, UConn actually led 42-41 at the half. The Huskies even finished with a 36-30 rebounding edge and a 23-20 assist advantage.

So how did the Musketeers win going away? They shot lights out from the field (54%) — as they have all season — and UConn didn’t (42%).

To be fair, Xavier also had a massive free-throw advantage. It shot 28 freebies (making 23) while the Huskies had nine (making four).

You have to assume the charity-stripe trips will even out Wednesday in Stoors. But will UConn’s defense — which carried the team during its 14-0 start — show up? In six games prior to shutting down Butler’s anemic offense, the Huskies had surrendered an average of 75 points. They lost five of the six.

And if you take out the one victory during that stretch — 69-60 over Creighton — that average goes from 75 to 78.

Needless to say, if you want to beat Xavier, limiting defensive lapses is crucial. Because the Musketeers rank in the top eight in the nation in scoring (84.1 points per game, 8th), field-goal shooting (50.1%, 6th), and 3-point shooting (39.7, 5th).

Also important: Xavier has a balanced attack, with five players averaging double digits in points. And that attack has been extremely consistent. Through 20 games, the Musketeers have been held under 72 points just once (71-64 neutral-site loss to Duke). And in Big East play, they are netting 85.2 points per contest.

Xavier’s low point in conference action? That would be last Wednesday’s 73-72 loss at DePaul as an 8.5-point favorite. There’s no justification for that defeat. It was simply a bad day at the office.

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However, before that trip to Chicago, the Musketeers had been 4-0 in true road games.

No, none of those road victims — Villanova, St. John’s, Georgetown and Cincinnati — are in UConn’s league. But Xavier has already proven it can beat the Huskies, so confidence shouldn’t be an issue Wednesday.

Here’s what is an issue, though: UConn has stopped covering point spreads.

After a sizzling 11-1 ATS run through non-conference play, the Huskies are 2-7 ATS against Big East foes.

Now, some might see that as an opportunity to “buy low” on UConn — after all, the Huskies are laying just 3.5 more points at home than they did at Xavier on New Year’s Eve.

Again, though, we’re not convinced all is fixed in Husky land. As such, we’re snagging the points at Caesars Sportsbook with Xavier, whose 71-64 setback to Duke is its only loss by more than four points.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.