College Football Playoff championship odds: Georgia remains huge favorite

One opponent and 60 minutes.

That’s all that stands between the Georgia Bulldogs and college football immortality as a repeat champion. It’s also all that stands between the TCU Horned Frogs and one of the biggest upsets in modern sports history.

In what is the most unlikely matchup in the short history of the College Football Playoff, defending champion Georgia and long shot TCU will play for the 2022-23 national title Monday night.

Moments after barely getting past Ohio State in the second of Saturday’s College Football Playoff semifinal games, Georgia was installed as a near two-touchdown favorite on the college football championship game odds board.

So far, that point spread has been met with a split opinion — and mostly split action — in the betting community.

With six days remaining before kickoff at Sofi Stadium in Los Angeles, here’s a look at odds to win the 2022-23 College Football Playoff championship game and how the early betting action is trending.

Odds updated as of 3 a.m. ET on Jan. 3.

When the four-team College Football Playoff field was revealed nearly a month ago, the consensus opinion among oddsmakers was that the two semifinal games would be one-sided.

No. 1 Georgia opened as a 6.5-point favorite against No. 4 Ohio State, while second-ranked Michigan was installed as a 9-point chalk against No. 3 TCU.

By kickoff of each game, those numbers had dropped to as low as Georgia -4.5 and Michigan -7.5. Those somewhat modest line moves turned out to be prescient.

TCU on Saturday raced out to a big first-half lead against Michigan and held on for dear life, winning a 51-45 thriller. Some four hours later, Georgia mounted a furious rally against Ohio State and escaped with a 42-41 victory when the Buckeyes missed a 50-yard field goal as time expired.

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While the Horned Frogs (12-1, 9-3-1 ATS) covered the spread wire-to-wire against Michigan, the Bulldogs — who trailed 38-24 into the fourth quarter — never threatened to cash against Ohio State.

TCU’s upset as a significant underdog and Georgia’s close-shave victory didn’t exactly push bookmakers to forecast a competitive national championship game. On the contrary, they expect a bigger blowout in Monday’s finale than they projected for the semifinal matchups.

Shortly after surviving Ohio State, Georgia (14-0, 7-7 ATS) opened as a 13-point favorite at Caesars Sportsbook. BetMGM and FanDuel came out a tick higher, making the Bulldogs -13.5.

While FanDuel boosted the Bulldogs as high as -14.5 both late Saturday and early Sunday, the book dialed back to Georgia -13.5 early Sunday. By late Monday night, FanDuel’s number had dipped another point to Georgia -12.5 (with -115 juice on the Bulldogs).

BetMGM also moved off -13.5 on Monday, but only by a half-point to match Caesars Sportsbook’s number of -13.

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The Over/Under for college football’s national title game opened as low as 60.5 in some spots, but early money on the Over pushed the number to the current consensus of 62.5. That’s the number bettors can find at BetMGM and FanDuel, while Caesars Sportsbook is checking in at 62.

Among that trio of sportsbooks, FanDuel is offering the shortest moneyline odds on Georgia at -465. BetMGM has the Bulldogs at -500, which is slightly lower than Caesars’ price of -550.

The best national championship moneyline odds on TCU can be found at Caesars (+400). BetMGM is next at +375, with FanDuel coming in at +350.

The Horned Frogs’ moneyline prices are most interesting when juxtaposed with their College Football Playoff national championship odds prior to the season.

While Georgia entered the 2022-23 campaign among the favorites to win it all for a second straight year, TCU opened as high as +20000 (200-to-1) at some sportsbooks. The Frogs’ national championship odds were still sitting at +6600 in early November when the team was 9-0.

But now, as one of just two teams still standing, TCU’s best price to win its first national championship since 1938 is down to +400.

Do the Horned Frogs have a legitimate shot to upend the champs? It depends on what kind of history you favor.

In eight seasons since the College Football Playoff was instituted, a No. 1 seed has reached the championship game six times. Its record in those six games: 2-4.

That’s a good sign for TCU. So is this: Since Nebraska went back-to-back in 1994-95, there has only been one repeat college football champion: Alabama did it in 2011-12.

On the other hand, five of the eight championship games in the College Football Playoff era have been blowouts. That includes the last four in a row, which were decided by point margins of 15, 28, 17 and 28 points.

If that trend continues Monday night, it’s highly unlikely that the Horned Frogs will be the team delivering the beatdown.

That said, if you like TCU’s chances to successfully cap a magical season — and you don’t already possess a national title futures ticket on the Horned Frogs — now is probably the optimum time put your money where your opinion is.

The reason: When it comes to single-event contests like the Super Bowl and national championship game, the betting public traditionally floods the market with moneyline wagers on the underdog.

So barring injuries and/or suspensions to key players, it’s a near certainty that the current moneyline prices on both teams will shrink between now and Monday’s kickoff.

Which direction will the point spread and total go? The betting community will answer that question with its action in the coming days — although given how the spread has dropped in the last 48 hours, it’s clear that TCU is the preferred side in wager land.

Our best advice: Frequently monitor the line movement, and when you see a number that jives with your opinion on how the game will play out, fire away.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.