Bet on the Eagles to pick up where they left off in 2022 and handle the Patriots

Bill Belichick enters his 24th season as the Patriots head coach as the third-winningest coach in NFL history. But it’s fair to say he’s feeling more pressure to play for his job than ever before.

New England is the least-popular pick to win the AFC East across sportsbooks.

Meanwhile, the Eagles are among the top favorites to win the Super Bowl.

In a rematch of the 2018 Super Bowl, I expect the Philadelphia Eagles to handle business and get a win in enemy territory over the New England Patriots.

(4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Although sports betting sites across the country agree with me and favor the Eagles, I just don’t feel comfortable enough predicting the spread or point total for this game.

If you’re looking to bet on this game, you may not get a huge return betting on an Eagles win, but it’s the safer play.

After 3,800 yards and 22 touchdowns as a rookie, Mac Jones regressed heavily to throw just 11 touchdowns and 2,997 yards in 2022. Jones was also sacked 34 times.

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I expect the Patriots to improve on that side of the ball this year but not enough to pick up a win over the Eagles in Week 1. Philadelphia gave up the seventh-fewest points per game last year and return the majority of that same defense.

The Eagles are coming off a year in which they finished with 70 sacks, the third-most in a single season in NFL history. With additions of Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith to go along with the likes of Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat, and Fletcher Cox, New England’s offense could be in for a rough day through the air and on the ground.

Philadelphia’s offense is a juggernaut in its own right, as the last time we saw Jalen Hurts was in the Super Bowl where he accounted for four touchdowns and nearly 400 yards from scrimmage.

The Eagles’ core remains together on the offensive line and skill position groups, with the new backfield paring of D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny looking to add to an offense that already ran for the fourth most yards per game last year.

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The Eagles have only lost one Week 1 game since 2016. On the flip side, New England has had mixed results in recent season-openers in the post-Tom Brady era.

I can see this game going two ways, which is why I picked the money line rather than a spread or total market. On one hand, I can see this being a slow and methodical low-scoring game where play in the trenches is key.

New England’s offensive line is rocky on paper, but the Patriots will look to feature Rhaomndre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliot due to a less than impressive group of wide receivers.

Likewise, Philadelphia will want to win with the offensive line playing a role, as that unit was outstanding in run blocking a year ago.

If both defenses perform decently, it could finish with fewer than 45 points. But Hurts is an X-factor even Belichick might struggle with, as his dual-threat skills make him a matchup nightmare.

If Hurts gets rolling and connecting with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith early, this could be a rout. Expect the Patriots’ first-round rookie cornerback Christian Gonzales to be targeted early by the Eagles.

No matter which of these scripts are followed in Week 1, I expect Philadelphia to come out on top.

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