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English Premier League odds, predictions: Two best bets for Sunday’s slate

Nick Hennion of The Action Network breaks down his pair of plays for Sunday's English Premier League slate.

Jarrod Bowen of West Ham United during the UEFA Europa Conference League 2022/23 Play-Off First Leg match between West Ham United and Viborg FF at London Stadium on August 18, 2022 in London, England. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)
Jarrod Bowen of West Ham United during the UEFA Europa Conference League 2022/23 Play-Off First Leg match between West Ham United and Viborg FF at London Stadium on August 18, 2022 in London, England. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)Read moreCatherine Ivill / Getty Images
    by Nick Hennion, Action Network
    Published 

Saturday’s English Premier League slate has reached its conclusion and bettors can now turn their attention to Sunday’s set of fixtures.

Only three matches fill out the card, but they all have the potential to be high-quality fixtures. In the early slate, Brighton travels to West Ham and Chelsea travels to Leeds United. Then, to close out the day, Manchester City head to St. James’s Park to battle Newcastle United.

Where should bettors look across the board? Here are my two best bets for Sunday’s action. All odds come courtesy of BetMGM and are reflective at time of writing.

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Best Bet No. 1 - West Ham/Brighton Both Teams to Score - “Yes” (-135)

Historically, this prop has proven quite profitable, so I’m slightly surprised the price isn’t higher (like -150).

Since Brighton were promoted to the top flight before the 2017-18 season, this head-to-head has seen both teams score in eight of 10, including seven straight. Plus, in those same 10 fixtures, both teams have generated at least 0.7 expected goals in seven, per fbref.com.

With West Ham facing a bit of an early injury crisis in defense and playing on short rest following a Thursday Europa Conference League fixture, I expect Brighton to get on the scoresheet relatively easily. In the last six head-to-head meetings, manager Graham Potter’s side has generated 1.43 expected goals per 90 minutes against the Hammers.

That said, West Ham has established itself as a very reliable attacking side at home. Last season, it failed to score in exactly zero Premier League fixtures at the London Stadium. Plus, positive offensive regression could arrive soon for manager David Moyes’s squad, which has generated 2.5 expected goals this season but has scored none.

For those reasons, back this market up to -145.

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Best Bet No. 2 - Brighton & Hove Albion to Win Either Half (+105) vs. West Ham

If you buy into the both teams to score handicap, that triggers a profitable historical trend for Brighton.

Last season, Potter’s side scored at least once in 25 of 38 matches. In those 25 matches, they managed to win at least one half in 21 of those 25 fixtures. In the four in which they failed to win at least one half, it was the result of a drawn half, not a loss.

Expand the sample to include the last two seasons and prospective bettors will find that in games where Brighton clears 0.5 goal, they’ve claimed at least one 45-minute period in 75% of those matches (38 of 51).

With West Ham coming off a midweek fixture, I make Brighton a live underdog for this match and think they’re definitely capable of winning at least one half against the Hammers. Based on the aforementioned data, I’ll play this market up to -135.

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