Betting Commercial Content. 21+. Provided by Action Network, official betting partner of The Inquirer.English Premier League odds, predictions: Two best bets for Sunday’s slate
The Action Network's Nick Hennion delivers his two best bets for Sunday's English Premier League slate.
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Saturday’s Premier League schedule is behind us and we’re onto the remainder of the slate on Sunday.
Only three matches fill out Sunday’s card with the headliner being West Ham’s visit to Aston Villa. Elsewhere, Wolverhampton Wanderers welcome Newcastle United, while Nottingham Forest play host to Tottenham Hotspur, which is looking for its third win in four games to start the season.
Where should bettors look across these three matches for betting opportunities? Here are my two best bets for Sunday’s Premier League slate. Odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.
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Best Bet No. 1 - Aston Villa-West Ham Single-Game Parlay: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals (+109)
Historically, this fixture has produced goals in abundance and I see that trend continuing at Villa Park.
The “yes” side of both teams to score has hit in five consecutive meetings between these clubs, while four straight have seen both teams score and the total clear 2.5 goals. In terms of the underlying metrics, the last four meetings have seen these teams combine for 11.43 expected goals and 14 big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.
Plus, Aston Villa did very well last season to generate home scoring chances against bottom-half sides. In six qualifying fixtures under Steven Gerrard, Villa produced 1.82 expected goals per 90 minutes and generated at least one xG in all six fixtures. But, it also allowed at least one expected goal in four of those six fixtures.
With West Ham’s defense playing extremely open in its first few fixtures this season, expect Villa to do no worse than to get on the scoreboard. That said, I’ve been unimpressed by the Villa defense early this season. In three fixtures against Everton, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace, Gerrard’s side has surrendered five expected goals and seven big scoring chances.
Add in that new signing Diego Carlos will be missing from the Villa backline and I expect West Ham find the net for the first time this season. In terms of this parlay, I’ll play it up to -105.
Best Bet No. 2 - Wolverhampton Wanderers/Newcastle United Under 2.5 Goals (-138)
For all of Newcastle’s success this season, the Magpies have historically struggled offensively away from home.
In road fixtures played this calendar year, manager Eddie Howe’s side has generated only 1.08 expected goals per 90 minutes. Across those 11 fixtures, Newcastle has generated more than 1.5 expected goals only three times, one of which came after playing up a man for nearly 80 minutes against Brentford. And, although it’s a small sample, Newcastle’s first road fixture against Brighton saw them create only 0.2 expected goals while taking only four shots.
It’s certainly asking a lot to put trust in this Wolves defense, but early returns have been good. So far this season, manager Bruno Lage’s side has surrendered only five big scoring chances and 0.86 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes. Plus, it’s not as if the competition has been easy. Just last week, Wolves conceded only 1.67 expected goals and a single big scoring chance at Tottenham.
That said, this Wolves attack is a mess. Currently, it’s tied with West Ham United for last in big scoring chances created (one) and sits fourth-worst in the league in total expected goals. Additionally, in its last 13 home matches against non-Big Six opposition, Wolves has generated a minuscule 0.96 expected goals per 90 minutes and has cleared the one xG benchmark only four times.
It’s a bit square, but my numbers price under 2.5 goals at -155, so I’m happy to back it at -138.
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