Bet on high-scoring game between Chelsea and Luton Town in Friday’s Premier League match

Chelsea seemed buoyed after a well-played draw against Liverpool in Matchweek 1. Priced as a home underdog to the Reds, Chelsea fought back after getting outplayed in the first 20 minutes and earned praise for a 1-1 tie that could have gone either way. There were some cracks showing in the match, but there was much more good than bad in their first match under Mauricio Pochettino -- especially considering how insipid the Blues were in 2022-23.

That performance caught the market’s attention and Chelsea spent a lot of last week as an odds-on against West Ham United in Matchweek 2. The steam would die down a bit, but Chelsea closed still closed as a +115 road-favorite at London Stadium.

The Blues would go on to lose that match, 3-1, which threw cold water on the optimism after their performance against Liverpool. Chelsea was a tough team to project before the season started and their first two results have done nothing to change that.

Fortunately for the Blues, they’re a massive favorite over Luton Town on Friday afternoon.

While Chelsea spent Matchweek 2 losing to West Ham United, Luton Town was off. The Hatters’ home stadium needs to be upgraded to meet Premier League standards, so their match with Burnley was postponed. Luton Town lost comprehensively to Brighton in their season-opener.

Luton Town’s promotion story has been quite the fairytale. It was only a decade ago that the Hatters were out of the Football League and playing in the fifth division. But the club has risen from those ashes and now finds itself making a trip to Stamford Bridge to take on a team that has spent over a billion dollars on transfers since being taken over by Todd Boehly.

Boehly’s lavish spending is crazy, but it does seem that Chelsea is on the right path (high praise for this kind of budget). The hiring of Pochettino should get the club settled and the Argentine’s reputation as a player-developer should restore Chelsea to the top of the table eventually. But there are still plenty of flaws with the Blues and those cracks have showed against Liverpool and West Ham.

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Those cracks are why I like a bet on the Over 3.5 (+130).

The Blues were without an identity last season, but now they’re adapting to Pochettino’s. It’ll take some time and mistakes should be expected from a squad looking to develop talent as much as succeed.

Chelsea has had no real issue creating scoring chances in its first two matches -- the Blues are averaging 1.9 expected goals for -- but they are giving up a lot going the other way. That should give Luton Town a chance to contribute to the scoresheet in this contest.

And while Chelsea’s defensive flaws should open things up for Luton Town, it’s hard to trust the Hatters to keep Chelsea from naming its score on Friday. The Hatters conceded four goals on 4.0 expected goals at Brighton and will likely struggle to prevent scoring chances against a team that is not having any issues getting good looks to this point in the season.

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