How to bet EPL relegation six-pointer between Everton and Wolverhampton

It may still be August, but it’s hard to overstate how important Saturday’s match between Wolverhampton and Everton is for both teams. It’s not every season that you get a relegation six-pointer in August, but this one certainly carries that weight.

At the time of writing Everton is a +130 favorite on the three-way moneyline, while Wolves is sitting at +220. A draw is priced at +235.

This is a funny matchup because both Everton and Wolves have a reputation for being low-event, pragmatic teams but that has hardly been the case through two matches. The numbers show that the Toffees and Wolverhampton are playing wide open matches out of the gate.

While neither side has earned a point, both clubs were unlucky losers in 1-0 losses in Matchweek 1. The Toffees created 2.7 expected goals and blew plenty of scoring chances in a defeat to Fulham, while Wolverhampton ran all over Manchester United on the road and had similar problems with finding the back of the net.

Things were not as optimistic after Matchweek 2 as both Everton and Wolves were torn to shreds, allowing four goals apiece.

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Adding to the drama on Saturday is that neither club is really settled. While Wolverhampton saw its manager depart right before opening day due to lack of reinforcements in the transfer market, Everton is basically in the midst of a revolt right now. Outrageously poor management by the club’s owner and front office have left the Toffees in a perilous position and they’ve escaped relegation on the penultimate and final day of the season in the last two campaigns, respectively.

On the field, the Toffees haven’t been much better. Although the team has a talented midfield and dependable players in key positions like centerback and goalkeeper, their only reliable goalscorer — Dominic Calvert-Lewin — can’t stay healthy and just broke his cheekbone last week. That’s left Sean Dyche in quite the perdicament as the club desperately need to bring in a striker but their finances are such a mess that they can’t do it.

Nonetheless, Dyche has the Toffees playing a decent attacking brand of football and they are due for some offensive regression, even if this team will always underperform its expected goals metrics. Similarly, Wolverhampton should get plenty of looks of their own as Everton were just cut open by Aston Villa and they made one too many mistakes against Fulham.

Betting the Over 2.5 between two squads that have combined for one goal in four total matches is nobody’s idea of fun, but it’s the right bet on Saturday morning.

The Bet: Over 2.5 goals (+115, DraftKings)

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