Fade Aaron Nola, Phillies in pivotal series opener against Giants on Monday

The Philadelphia Phillies host the San Francisco Giants on Monday, August 21, for a three-game set with monster playoff implications.

The Phillies hold the top NL Wildcard spot, sitting two games ahead of the Giants. The Giants hold the second Wildcard spot but are only a game ahead of the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Reds and Marlins.

The NL Wildcard race is a mess. These two teams are in the thick of it.

So, let’s share my best bet, prediction and pick for Monday’s Giants vs. Phillies game.

While Alexander likely starts this game, he’s only an opener for Sean Manaea (RHP) and the Giants bullpen. It’ll be a three-part pitching performance for San Francisco.

However, I’m relatively high on that three-part combination.

Alexander shouldn’t see the lineup more than once, so hopefully, he doesn’t burn the house down. His 3.63 expected ERA this season suggests he won’t.

Meanwhile, I’m relatively high on Manaea.

Manaea saw an increase in his fastball velocity this year, which led to an increase in his Stuff+ metrics.

(As an aside: Stuff+ is a metric used to quantify the “nastiness” of a pitch or arsenal based on its physical characteristics, with 100 being league average.)

However, those improvements have only just started to show. Manaea boasts a 2.74 ERA, a 3.10 expected FIP and a 23.3% strikeout minus walk rate in eight second-half appearances, all near-elite numbers.

Manaea’s overall numbers are dragged down from a disastrous first six weeks of the year (7.96 ERA), but he’s a better pitcher than his overall numbers suggest. I think the markets are undervaluing him.

Finally, after Alexander and Manaea work through the order a few times, they’ll hand the game off to a Giants bullpen that ranks top-four in reliever expected FIP this season (3.97). Between Camilo Doval and the Rogers brothers (Taylor and Tyler), the Giants are rock-solid in the latter frames.

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The Giants hope their pitcher-by-committee approach will be enough to out-duel perennial Cy Young contender Nola.

I think it will.

Nola’s seen a sharp decrease in performance this season, and he has yet to right the ship. He checks in with a 4.90 ERA over his past 12 starts, showing poor secondary command even as his fastball velocity returns to normal.

The Phillies will have a clear offensive advantage today, but Nola does put the Giants in their better split (95 wRC+ vs. RHP, 86 wRC+ vs. LHP). San Francisco has several left-handed platoon bats that can barrel right-handed pitchers, including Lamonte Wade Jr. and Joc Pederson.

So, between the platoon and pitching advantages, I’m willing to take a shot with the Giants as moderate road underdogs.

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