2023 Valero Texas Open odds, predictions, picks: Two long shots to back at this week’s PGA Tour event

Get ready for one of the most volatile golf tournaments of the season. That isn’t to say the format for the Valero Texas Open is peculiar — it isn’t — but the spot it occupies on the schedule certainly is unique.

Obviously the PGA Tour is different compared to other leagues and the schedule doesn’t compare to team sports, but it’s hard to come up with a comparable to the tournament we’re about to watch — and bet on — this week.

What makes the Valero Texas Open such an adventure is actually what happens after the Valero Texas Open, namely, The Masters, which kicks off on April 6.

For some players, like Rickie Fowler, the Valero Texas Open is the last chance to qualify for a trip to Augusta National, but for others, like tournament favorites Tyrrell Hatton, Corey Conners and Si-Woo Kim, this is a warm-up event.

And the fact that those players are the favorites tells you everything you need to know about the strength of this field. Basically every star player on the PGA Tour has opted to skip this week in order to rest up for the Masters.

In other words, the Valero Texas Open is an unpredictable, wide open event. Here are a pair of longshots that could take advantage of the set-up:

It was not too long ago that Benny An was priced in the +4500 to +5500 range in a similar event at the Valspar Championship. That tournament came after THE PLAYERS Championship, so the field was very light. An didn’t really threaten to contend at the Valspar, but he still made the cut and got off the blocks quickly before stumbling on Saturday and Sunday.

That’s how this season has played out for the South Korean, though, and it’s worth noting that he’s yet to miss a cut (although he did withdraw at the Arnold Palmer after Round 1) in eight starts in 2023.

An’s two best results in 2023 were only a T12 at the Sony Open and a T21 at the Honda Classic, but he’s a talented player that’s clearly working his way back into form. Don’t forget, An lost his tour card two years ago and had to play on the Korn Ferry Tour to earn his way back onto the main stage.

If An is going to lift a trophy on the PGA Tour, it will likely come in an event like this where there’s not a huge gap in talent between him and most of the folks above him on the oddsboard.

The up-and-coming Bhatia is always going to get betting support when he’s listed at a big number in a weak field, but there’s a reason why he’ll be trendy this week. The 21-year-old may have missed the cut at the Valspar, but he put up two terrific results on either side of that event. Bhatia was the runner-up in Puerto Rico before the Valspar and then finished T3 at the Corales in his last event.

None of those tournaments are all that prestigious, but neither is this week’s Texas Open. In short, Bhatia’s form and talent is always worth a play at this kind of price.

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