The PLAYERS Championship: Shane Lowry, Keegan Bradley among best values at TPC Sawgrass

It’s always nice when a long shot comes from nowhere to win a big PGA Tour event. That’s what happened last week as Kurt Kitayama, a 200-1 long shot, beat a loaded field and outlasted some of the biggest stars in the sport to lift the trophy on Sunday.

It served as a nice reminder of why betting on golf can be so much fun.

Our focus now shifts to THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass, one of the biggest tournaments on one of the game’s most iconic courses.

Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler are the three favorites to win, with McIlroy and Rahm currently sitting at +900 on BetMGM and Scheffler right behind them at +1100. There are plenty of other big names at short odds, as 43 of the top-50 players in the world will be at TPC Sawgrass.

Despite the star-power on display, the PLAYERS is known for chaos and that has led to some surprising leaderboards and long shot winners like Si Woo Kim, who won as a +75000 outsider in 2017.

Odds updated as of 10:45 a.m. ET on March 7.

And even though it’s unlikely we’ll see another huge price like that take down this field, it’s almost a given that there will be some triple-digit players in contention come Sunday. Anirban Lahiri finished runner-up here in 2022, Lee Westwood did the same in 2021 and Jim Furyk was second in 2019.

There’s always plenty of carnage at TPC Sawgrass, so it’s a good idea to throw a couple of darts and hope your longshot can stay steady as players eject around him.

Here are a few value bets for THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass.

Tom Kim and Rickie Fowler are also in this range and will likely be more popular than Bradley, but it’s hard to ignore the St. John’s alumni’s form right now. Bradley has a runner-up, a T10 and a T20 finish in his last four starts and came alive in the final round at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which feels like a good sign as we head to another challenging Florida course at TPC Sawgrass.

Bradley also boasts some decent history here, including a fifth-place finish in 2022, and has some great numbers on Pete Dye courses. We know Keegan can win in this deep fields, so this number is absolutely in play.

» READ MORE: Bet Iowa State to win battle royal in college basketball’s best conference

As long as he’s sticking around these prices, Lowry continues to be a player I want to target.

The Irishman didn’t contend at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but he did hang around the fringe until a terrible round on Saturday. It was also the first time he made the cut in five tries at the API, which shows us he’s in decent nick at the moment.

We know that Lowry fancies himself in tough conditions and at big tournaments, as he’s won an Open Championship and owns a top-5 finish in each of the other three majors. Lowry has finished inside the top-13 in each of his past two trips to TPC Sawgrass and, like Bradley, has good numbers on Pete Dye courses.

Time to go back to the well. There are some golfers that are hard to quit because you know the talent is there, but the results just don’t come. Fleetwood is one of those players.

The Merseysider didn’t exactly storm the scene at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but a lot of that was due to some terrible putting. He gave back five strokes to the field on the greens, which basically rendered the rest of his game moot. That’s a shame, as Fleetwood once again gained strokes on the field on approach and from tee to green at Bay Hill.

Fleetwood has had some nice showings at TPC Sawgrass, which makes sense since the windy, tricky conditions should suit his style. The Merseysider has a 22nd, 5th and 7th-place finish in three of his last four trips to Ponte Vedra Beach.

Quite simply, this is a buy-low opportunity on a standout player that is not fancied at all by betting market right now.

We all know that Matsuyama is much more talented than these odds suggest, but back-to-back missed cuts has sent his price soaring. And hey, it’s not all been bad for Matsuyama in 2023 -- he finished T9 at the Farmers last month.

The former Masters champion withdrew from this event in 2022 and missed the cut in 2021, but he did collect a top-10 here in 2019. It’s a longshot, but it’s hard to look away at this price.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.