U.S. Open predictions: Four long shots to bet at this week’s golf major in Los Angeles

The 2023 U.S. Open begins this Thursday at Los Angeles Country Club. It is the first time that LACC, which underwent renovations in 2010, will host a major championship.

It’s hard to know what to expect out of a debut course, but all signs point to it being a classic U.S. Open setup that will punish you for mistakes and present plenty of challenges around the green.

It doesn’t matter what course the Tour stops at these days, you can basically write Scottie Scheffler’s name in pen at the top of the betting board. The Texan is enjoying one of the most impressive seasons in PGA Tour history and is deserving of his status as the chalk at LACC. Scheffler is +700 to win this week, putting him in his own tier ahead of Brooks Koepka and Jon Rahm (the two major winners this year) at +1100.

Rory McIlroy (+1300), Patrick Cantlay (+1700) and Viktor Hovland (+1700) are the only other golfers listed under +2000 at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of writing.

One thing that’s worth noting is that, despite the carnage we usually see at the U.S. Open, it’s been quite a while since we’ve see a massive longshot win this tournament. Lucas Glover (2009) was the last triple-digit outsider to lift the trophy.

We’ve certainly seen some surprises (Martin Kaymer, anyone?) since then, but nothing out of a storybook like Glover’s win.

Two of the outright favorites — Rahm in 2021 and Jordan Spieth in 2015 — have lifted the trophy in the last 10 years, but the sweet spot seems to be between +2500 and +6000. Seven of the last 10 winners have gone off in that range (lines courtesy of golfodds.com):

With that in mind, let’s pick out a few players that are worth a bet at LACC this week.

It seems like Hideki Matsuyama always flies under the radar in major championships.

On one hand, that makes sense. He’s not a household name like Rahm, McIlroy or Koepka and he’s not really one to put together a stretch of dominant golf like we’ve seen out of the players above him on the board. But on the other hand, he’s won a major and has been playing rock solid in 2023.

Matsuyama has played 12 stroke-play tournaments in 2023 and has finished inside the top-20 five times and missed just two cuts. He may not have any wins since the 2022 Sony Open, but he’s a major champion on a course (Augusta National) that will likely pose similar questions to the ones that will be offered up at LACC.

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The luster seems to have worn off on Sungjae Im a bit of late, but that’s good news for bettors who love to buy the dip on elite players. Im has missed two of his last three cuts and finished T41 in his last outing, but before that he posted five top-10′s and seven top-20′s in 10 starts.

We know that the South Korean has the overall game to win at any track and his deft touch around the green could be the difference on a course that will fool plenty of players as they get closer to the flagstick.

The golf betting market is a prisoner to recency bias. Take Jason Day, for example. The Aussie won the AT&T Byron Nelson on May 14 and then went off at +2500 at the PGA Championship and +2700 to win the Memorial. He missed the cut at both of those tournaments and is now 50/1 in basically the same field at the U.S. Open. It’s a great opportunity to buy low on a player that has been terrific for most of 2023.

You always want to at the very least consider betting Shane Lowry when things are about to get grueling. The Irishman has shown he can handle the toughest conditions that the game can throw at him and is considered one of the sport’s big-game hunters. Lowry hasn’t gatecrashed a tournament yet in 2023, but he finished T12 at the Masters, T16 at the PGA Championship and was T16 at the Memorial.Lowry has won the Open Championship and he’s got top-5 finishes at all four majors.

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