Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz: How to get value on Paul, a big favorite in Saturday night fight

Saturday night brings us a primetime boxing match: Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz.

This fight epitomizes boxing in the 21st century. We’ve got an influencer-turned-boxer battling an aging MMA star looking for a payday.

Nevertheless, there should be plenty of eyes on this cross-sport cultural event. And there should be plenty of gamblers with money on the Saturday night fight.

So, here’s our best bet for Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz.

Diaz is 38 years old with 34 career MMA fights under his belt, and he’s fighting on Saturday 15 pounds over his usual weight (he’ll be sitting 185 instead of 170 for this one). Paul is 12 years younger, bigger and stronger.

Are we sure Diaz can keep up?

The oddsmakers don’t think so, making Paul nearly a 4-to-1 favorite on the ML.

I also don’t think so. Paul has all the physical advantages, but he’s also developing into a solid boxer. His jab game is good, and he carries a big right hand. He’s shown the ability to hit hard late in fights (four KOs in six wins) and seems well-conditioned for the big stage.

And while Diaz is an experienced fighter, this is his boxing debut. Can he adequately prepare for the change? As the saying goes, you can’t teach an old dog new tricks.

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The problem is that there’s no value in betting Paul to win. I’m not laying -390 in a fight between two quasi-boxers. However, we can find a more creative, valuable way to wager on Paul.

Paul should land punches. But Diaz is tough, and his larger frame should allow him to stand tall and weather the jabs and hooks.

Not to mention Diaz is one of the planet’s most well-conditioned fighters. His cardio is legendary.

So, Paul can out-class Diaz, but it won’t be a walk in the park. Diaz has enough experience and athleticism to stay on his feet and battle back for 10 slogging rounds.

Ultimately, look for Paul’s physical and tactical advantages to play out on the cards and bet the influencer picks up a victory by unanimous decision. At the minimum, there’s value in the huge plus-money odds being offered for that prop bet.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.