The public might be on the under, but there’s reason to like the over in Thursday night’s Jets-Browns Hall of Fame game

The Jets vs. Browns Hall of Fame pre-season game kicks off Thursday night, ending our long national nightmare of no NFL football.

You should tread lightly when betting on preseason football. These are exhibition games, and winning is far from the goal.

But sometimes you can find a needle in a haystack, and I think I’ve found one of those with this Jets vs. Browns prediction and pick.

The Jets have two quarterbacks that love meaningless football.

Hall of Fame Game starting quarterback Zach Wilson has averaged 8.6 yards per attempt in his three preseason games. He went 15-for-20 for 191 yards and two touchdowns in his two 2021 starts, suitable for a 137.7 quarterback rating.

And you’d have to imagine Wilson is motivated after spending all summer in a monstrous, Aaron Rodgers-sized shadow.

Preseason backup quarterback Chris Streveler has been similarly effective in his exhibition opportunities. He picked up 277 yards and five touchdowns on 8.4 yards per attempt in three appearances last season.

Behind these two, the Jets are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) and 5-1 to the Over in preseason games during the Robert Saleh era, averaging 25 points per game.

But I wouldn’t overlook Kevin Stefanski’s squad. The Browns went 3-1 to the Over in their four 2022 pre-season contests, averaging just over three touchdowns per game.

And I’m bullish on Cleveland’s preseason offense this year.

In preseason games, you often need an athletic quarterback that can scramble. These young guns can’t read NFL defenses, so they must rely on their instincts and legs.

The Browns will start Kellen Mond under center, a second-year Texas A&M product that ran for over 2,100 yards and 20 touchdowns during his time in College Station.

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After Mond, the Browns will turn to rookie UCLA product Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

With DTR under center, UCLA was an electric dual-action rushing offense. Over his final two seasons and 24 starts, he picked up 1,254 yards on the ground at just over five yards per carry.

Thompson-Robinson is a walking highlight reel. Keep a close eye on him Thursday night in Canton.

The Jets have quarterbacks that can air it out in meaningless football games. The Browns have quarterbacks that can move the ball on the ground.

Points might not be at a premium in this Hall of Fame game.

Moreover, low-scoring preseason games might be a myth.

When the total closes below 35, pre-season Overs are 158-124-6 since 2004, hitting at a 56% clip and generating an 8.9% return on investment. They’re cashing by an average of 2.6 points per game.

The public is taking the Under, but history tells us this will be a free-flowing football game with plenty enough scoring. And we always want to fade the public, anyway.

Take the Over.

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The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.