Back TCU to earn first-ever season sweep of Kansas as home favorite in Big 12 clash

The Kansas Jayhawks are 2-for-2 on their Big 12 revenge tour. Now comes their third and final opportunity to dish out some payback, this time against TCU.

A month ago, the Horned Frogs went to Lawrence, Kansas, and did something few visitors to Allen Fieldhouse ever do: They embarrassed the Jayhawks 83-60 as a 7.5-point road underdog.

It was the second of what turned out to be three consecutive losses for Kansas, all against Big 12 foes. The defending champs have since avenged the first two defeats with double-digit wins over Kansas State on Jan. 31 and Baylor on Saturday.

However, those two blowout victories occurred at Allen Fieldhouse. On Monday, the Jayhawks will be seeking vengeance in enemy territory. And they’ll be doing so as an underdog and against an offense that just put up 100 points 48 hours ago.

So where do we stand with our Kansas vs. TCU prediction? Let’s just say we believe the Jayhawks’ retribution streak will end at two.

Odds updated as of 11:45 a.m. ET on Feb. 20.

Looking solely at the recent form of both squads, the point spread for this game doesn’t make sense (nor does our wagering recommendation).

No. 3 Kansas (22-5, 13-14 ATS) is riding a four-game SU and ATS winning streak and is 6-1 SU and ATS since enduring its rare three-game losing skid last month.

On the flip side, the 24th-ranked Horned Frogs (18-9, 14-12-1 ATS) had been 0-for-February — both SU and ATS — prior to Saturday’s 100-75 thumping of Oklahoma State.

What’s more, the Jayhawks (10-4 in conference) are tied with Texas atop the Big 12 standings. TCU (7-7) is tied with Oklahoma State for sixth.

But what’s missing among those indisputable facts is this name: Mike Miles Jr.

Miles is TCU’s leading scorer, a guard who averages 17.9 points per game on 53.1% shooting.

A guard who didn’t play a single minute during his team’s recent four-game losing slide because of a knee injury.

A guard who contributed 15 points in his return to action Saturday against Oklahoma State.

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And a guard who had 15 points, four rebounds and four assists in TCU’s 23-point rout of Kansas in Lawrence on Jan. 21.

Exactly one week after that upset at Kansas, Miles hyperextended his right knee just four minutes into an SEC/Big 12 Challenge clash at Mississippi State. The Horned Frogs went on to lose in overtime 81-74 as a 1.5-point road favorite.

TCU bounced back in its first game without Miles, but barely (76-72 home win over West Virginia). Then came the four consecutive defeats with Miles in street clothes.

It’s important to note, though, that three of those losses were on the road; the fourth was a competitive 72-68 setback to Baylor as a 2-point home underdog nine days ago.

The Bears had arrived at TCU having won eight of nine, yet they trailed by 10 points with under 10 minutes play. Think the Horned Frogs might have held onto that lead had a player of Miles’ caliber been on the floor?

While on the topic of Baylor, it went to Kansas on Saturday and busted open a 45-32 halftime lead. Then the Bears completely fell apart, getting outscored 55-26 in the second half as the Jayhawks ultimately rolled to an 87-71 victory as a 5-point home favorite.

An impressive comeback for the champs, to be sure. But also an exhausting one, as Kansas’ four leading scorers played nearly the entire game: forwards Jalen Wilson (21 points, 37 minutes) and K.J. Adams (17 points, 34 minutes), and guards Dujuan Harris (14 points, 37 minutes) and Gradey Dick (16 points, 36 minutes).

Now those four Kansas starters who comprise what basically amounts to a seven-man rotation have to come back two days later and face a talented, healthy and once-again confident TCU squad? In a hostile environment?

Good luck with that.

Keep this in mind, too: During their current 6-1 SU and ATS hot streak, the Jayhawks have played just one road game against a top-tier conference opponent. That opponent: Iowa State. Result: Kansas got blasted 68-53 as a 1.5-point chalk.

Lastly, last month’s stunning upset in Lawrence was only TCU’s fourth victory in 28 all-time meetings against the Jayhawks. One of the other three wins? It came last year, a 74-64 upset as a 6.5-point underdog in Fort Worth, Texas.

That was one of just eight victories in 18 league games for the 2021-22 Horned Frogs. And it was against an elite Kansas squad that won the national championship a little more than a month later.

Well, this Kansas squad is far from elite. And this TCU squad is far better than its .500 league record — and the Jayhawks know it.

So lay the short price at Caesars Sportsbook, and look for the Horned Frogs to do something they haven’t done since joining the Big 12 a decade ago: sweep a season series from mighty Kansas.

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