Isolate the starting pitching matchup and back the Marlins in the first five innings Monday vs. Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Florida to play the Miami Marlins on Monday. These two NL East foes are in the thick of a crazy wildcard race, so these divisional sets carry extra weight down the stretch.

Which potentially playoff-bound team are we betting on today? Read on for our Marlins vs. Phillies prediction and pick, a best bet for this July 31 game.

Marlins starting pitcher Edward Cabrera missed 34 days of the season with a shoulder injury, and he went and made a few rehab starts before re-joining the Fish.

He dominated Triple-A Jacksonville, putting together 11 scoreless innings across three appearances with 15 strikeouts and zero walks.

Cabrera’s made two starts since returning and still looks a little shaky. He’s given up four earned and walked five across seven innings — the walks have always been a problem for Cabrera.

But those starts came on the road against the Cardinals and Rays.

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On Monday, Cabrera returns to loanDepot, where he boasts a 2.61 ERA this year, to face a Phillies offense that ranks bottom-10 in OPS (.697) and wRC+ (88) in July.

I think we can buy low on Cabrera.

Meanwhile, Taijuan Walker is seeing regression after a mid-season hot streak. Walker put together a near-perfect six-start stretch in June, allowing only three earned runs and striking out 32 over 32 innings.

But Walker doesn’t have top-tier stuff, and his success came from a deep arsenal and deception.

Eventually, hitters will catch on. And they have, as Walker’s allowed 12 earned runs over his past four stars (23 ⅔ innings, 4.56 ERA).

Like Cabrera, Walker also has pronounced home-road splits. He carries a 2.80 ERA in Philadelphia but a 5.25 ERA on the road. He carries a 4.07 ERA in four lifetime starts at loanDepot.

So, given the trends and situational spot, I have no problems fading Walker and backing Cabrera on Monday in Miami.

But I would not recommend betting on this Marlins bullpen, used heavily in a thrilling 8-6 comeback victory on Sunday. Instead, back Miami in the first five innings, where we can isolate and directly attack the starting pitching matchup.

You can buy the Marlins F5 ML at -110 on DraftKings Sportsbook, a pretty good price.

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