Back Everton as three-way underdog against Liverpool in Saturday’s Merseyside Derby match

One of the best rivalries in all of sports will be renewed early on Saturday morning (7:30 a.m. ET) when Everton travels across Stanley Park to take on Liverpool in the 243rd iteration of the Merseyside Derby.

Liverpool is a massive -300 favorite on the three-way moneyline, while Everton is currently sitting as a +700 underdog.

Off the field, things are a mess for Everton. The club is on the precipice of serious financial trouble, there are rumors that they’re going to be acquired by a very shady American company called 777 Ventures and fans are consistently protesting against their current ownership group. That said, things on the field are starting to look much brighter.

The Toffees only have two wins on the season, but their statistical profile suggests they are a lot better than their 2-1-5 (W-D-L) record and -3 goal difference. Everton rank sixth (just behind Liverpool) in expected goal difference per 90 and its attack is averaging more shots per 90 minutes than every team in the Premier League except for Tottenham. Everton also rank third overall in creating big scoring chances.

Those kind of attacking numbers should give Liverpool backers some pause here because the Reds continue to struggle defensively. Liverpool 10th in expected goals conceded (not including penalty kick), 11th in scoring chances allowed and 12th in defending crosses.

For the past few seasons (since Carlo Ancelotti left the club), Everton’s only path to success in this fixture was to defend and counter, but this time around they actually have a feasible chance of taking control of the game and putting Liverpool on the backfoot.

Liverpool’s attack remains one of the best in the world and they could overwhelm Everton here, but this number is big enough to put some faith in the underrated Toffees. The market will catch up to Everton eventually, but this number suggests there’s still some wiggle room.

Back the underdog Toffees to earn a famous victory on Saturday morning.

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